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5. The Year of the Rat
- The University Press of Kentucky
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5 The Year of the Rat Americans do not like long, inconclusive wars—and this is going to be a long, inconclusive war. Thus we are sure to win in the end. —North Vietnamese prime minister Phan Van Dong New Year’s Day! It was now 1972, the Year of the Rat in the Asian calendar. Around 140,000 American troops still remained in Vietnam, but only 20,000 of them were in combat units.1 In January, President Nixon announced the withdrawal of 70,000 more Americans to reduce total strength to no more than 69,000 by 1 May.2 Those cuts were soon translated into actions down at our level. The US military telephone switchboards closed on 3 January, and all circuits were transferred to ARVN. From now on, all military telephones, lines, and switchboards would be operated and maintained by ARVN. This change was unwelcome for the remaining Americans. To ensure there was some backup for communications between the US elements, a single sideband radio net was set up. The radios used were civilian shortwave radios. Based on plans to phase out the Regimental Combat Assistant Teams (RCATs), our G-4 adviser, Major Richard C. Gudat, started transferring the regimental adviser buildings back to ARVN. The strength of the South Vietnamese armed forces was now:3 120 infantry battalions in 11 infantry divisions 58 artillery battalions 19 armored battalions THE YEAR OF THE RAT • 45 Engineer, signal, and other supporting arms and services A national reserve consisting of a marine division, an airborne division, and 21 Ranger battalions 37 Border Ranger defense battalions in bases along the border Territorial forces consisting of 1,679 RF companies and 8,356 PF platoons for a total of 550,000 soldiers stationed in their home provinces. 116,000 officers in the National Police An air force with more than 1,000 aircraft A navy with 1,680 craft of various types More than 4 million men in the People’s Self-Defense Forces, a part-time hamlet militia However, ARVN was losing the equivalent of a division a year through desertions (approximately 5,000–6,000). This rate of desertion meant that more and more men had to be drafted. The deserters and even the dead were sometimes maintained on the rolls so their commanders could continue to draw and steal their pay. The strength an ARVN infantry battalion actually had in the field was sometimes barely half of its authorized strength. Many optimists expected this year to be one of continued progress in South Vietnam. A South Vietnamese presidential election was held in October 1971 without disruption by the VC, which was still trying to recover from its disastrous losses during the Tet Offensive in 1968. VC influence in the rural areas was now the lowest in many years. ARVN troops were receiving a continuing flow of American equipment, and they were operating in the enemy’s base areas.4 However, something ominous was present for the pessimists to point to: the continuing buildup of NV A forces compared to the continuing withdrawal of American forces. If the enemy attacked before the South Vietnamese were completely ready to defend themselves—and the available intelligence indicated an attack was imminent—1972 could end in disaster. The North Vietnamese Political Bureau resolved that 1972 would be the year of “decisive victory.” It defined victory as forcing the United States “to end the war by negotiating from a position of defeat.”5 The North Vietnamese were sending nearly their entire army south. On 10 January 1972, MACV headquarters estimated 39,000 enemy troops had already infiltrated into South Vietnam since the [35.153.156.108] Project MUSE (2024-03-29 11:04 GMT) 46 • KONTUM start of the new year, compared to 27,400 during the same period in 1971. Many of them would arrive in the B-3 Front’s area during January and February. Equally important, the NV A was now bringing in big T-54 main battle tanks, which were much more threatening than the lighter P-76 tanks the NV A had previously used on a limited basis in the South. It also increased its artillery strength and deployed at least 52 anti-aircraft artillery battalions in Laos. Some of these battalions were equipped with 100-mm guns, an extremely potent anti-aircraft weapon.6 During late 1971 and early 1972, reconnaissance missions detected large numbers of NV A supplies, troops, and tanks...