Inside China's Grand Strategy: The Perspective from the People's Republic

2. China's Rise: Key Strategic Choices

2 China’s Rise Key Strategic Choices The Economy or the Military as a Priority Some analysts hold that China should assign top priority to developing military capabilities and treat economic interests as secondary.1 Others hold that, while there is nothing wrong with emphasizing economic development, Western countries and the United States will not allow China the time it needs to do so. Accordingly, it should focus on developing military industry and military technology, speed up constructing a navy and an air force, and invest heavily in space and aviation technologies . Still others advocate focusing on the military to stimulate overall economic development. The growth of any great power is based on economic strength. The successful great power is the county that has the strongest industrial infrastructure. However, as Paul Kennedy pointed out, military potential is not the same thing as military strength. Politics or geography might cause an economic powerhouse to opt out of military development, while an economically deficient country might choose to build a world-class military establishment. In any given period, a country’s total resources are limited, so resources allocated to military development are not available for other legitimate purposes.2 Historically, with respect to the development of great powers, there are five patterns of relationship between economic strength and military power. In the first, the two are equated, and any increase in economic strength results in an expansion of military power. Generally speaking, a world power is by definition a world military and economic power. 78 INSIDE CHINA’S GRAND STRATEGY Second, a nation may be economically strong but militarily weak. For example, the United States became a world-class nation at the end of the nineteenth century even though it was militarily not as strong as Britain , Germany, France, or Russia. Third, a nation may be weak economically but also be capable of exercising great military power. For example, the Napoleonic wars witnessed the climax of the French domination of Europe, even though at that time the level of French economic growth and industrialization was not high. In more modern times, the economic development of the Soviet Union was uneven, but expansionism persisted. Fourth, economic development need not result in external expansion. Since the Second World War, the economic development of Germany and Japan has been fast, but they have not adopted expansionist policies.3 Finally, countries in economic crisis are more likely to expand. Before World War II, although the economic development of Germany and Japan was not very fast, both of them followed the path of military expansion. It is obvious that there is a close relation between speedy economic development and external expansion, between economic growth and military expansion, between military strength and military expansion. However , that close relation can be manifested in a variety of different ways. The rise and fall of Russia (and the Soviet Union) indicates that, although emphasizing military strength may help a nation achieve great power status within a short time, it may not enable it to hold that place. The annual military expenditure of the Soviet Union accounted for as much as 11–13 percent of GNP, and it is true that the Soviet Union was growing from a world power to a superpower. But its military strength did not guarantee that status for long. If the rise of the Soviet Union was due to an emphasis on military power, so too was its fall. The United States also provides an example of the relation between economic and military capabilities. While U.S. hegemony is built on its military power, more important is the great support of its overall comprehensive national strength. U.S. success in the Cold War derives from the economic strength that dragged the Soviet Union down. Military power was directly involved, but economic issues were far more fundamental and decisive.4 According to the realist theory of international relations, all countries make national security their top priority. However, there is still the problem of defining national security and understanding what it means. The United States built a multitrillion-dollar defense system, but that did China’s Rise 79 not protect it from terrorist attack. If it were to establish a national missile defense system, would it guarantee its absolute security? History shows that it is impossible to achieve absolute security. Therefore , China cannot make absolute security its goal. But it can choose basic or relative security. That...