Inside China's Grand Strategy: The Perspective from the People's Republic

4. Chinas's Relations and Strategic Choces with Other Developing World Powers

4 China’s Relations and Strategic Choices with Other Developing World Powers Quasi World Powers and Multipolarization What Are Quasi World Powers? Developing or quasi world powers may at times be regarded as the fourth type of world power. They are those powers capable of competing for the position of a world power and on the threshold of becoming one in the near future. In absolute terms, their national power may exceed that of any large powers in the past, but their influence on world affairs does not equal that of such past great powers. For instance, Japan is currently much stronger than, but has considerably less influence than, the Japan of the late Meiji era a century ago. China’s present power is greater than that of the Qing dynasty two centuries ago or, for that matter, than any dynasty in Chinese history. But China is less influential in East Asia at present than the Qing dynasty was in its heyday, not to mention the Qin, Han, and Tang dynasties. Germany, France, Great Britain, and Russia are in the same situation. Quasi world powers may be divided into two groups: 1. The first group comprises those countries that are on the threshold of world power for the first time in their history. This is a stage that all world powers go through. Among the current quasi world powers, that is, Europe, Japan, Russia, China, and India, India may fit into this category . To a certain extent, China, too, may fit in here. Although China was 128 INSIDE CHINA’S GRAND STRATEGY a great power in East Asia on five occasions in history, its current rise is quite different in terms of the historical context and other conditioning factors from any other time in the past. There is little continuity between the past eras when China was a great power and the present. This is unlike contemporary Japan, Germany, and Russia, all of which are strongly connected to their past as great powers. Russia, in particular, basically inherited the power and potential of the Soviet Union. 2. The second group comprises renascent world powers. These are countries that slipped from their positions as world powers or superpowers or suffered failure and then rebounded to become quasi world powers and may again become full-fledged world powers. Among such countries are the Soviet Union after World War I, Germany, France, and Britain after World War II and the creation of the European Union (of which Germany, France, and Britain are the core), Japan after World War II, Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and China since the 1990s. Some of them may again achieve world power status; others may not. Among the more than 190 countries in the international community at the beginning of the twenty-first century, only the United States was a genuine world power. All the other large countries were at best quasi world powers. Their influence extends beyond their own regions but is still far from that of a world power. Relations among Quasi World Powers Generally speaking, developing countries in the same region at the same time are strongly competitive with each other. This is because world power status is a rare commodity that all the rising powers covet. But, in any given region, there is room for only a limited number of great powers , so not all rising powers will attain the status to which they aspire. Consequently, competition among large countries for world power status is intense and often engenders confrontation and wars. For instance, the Sino-Japanese relationship at the end of the nineteenth century was a typical competitive relationship among rising powers. Both countries sought influence in East Asia, especially in Northeast Asia, and their competition eventuated in war over Korea. Germany, France, and Russia also engaged in numerous wars arising from their competition for influence in Europe. These relationships are complicated because they are influenced by his- China’s Relations and Strategic Choices 129 tory and the contemporary era and are affected by comparative military power, ideology, national political systems, national characteristics, and religious and cultural factors. In general, there are several types of relationships among rising world powers. The first type is a competitive relationship. Relationships among geographically contiguous great powers are usually competitive. Examples include those among Britain, France, and Germany, between China and Japan, between China and India, and between Japan and Russia . China...