Toledo's Peru: Vision and Reality

8. Peru 2006, a Report Card

Even after a thorough review of the Toledo administration, it still remains difficult to evaluate the significance and the impact of the Toledo presidency. Much went right between 2001 and 2006, and much went wrong. For that reason, one is tempted to adopt a Chinese perspective. When asked to comment on the significance of the French Revolution (ca. 1789–1799), the late Zhou Enlai, foreign minister of the People’s Republic of China at the time, responded : “It’s too early to tell.” One thing that is clear is that Toledo developed a long-term strategy for the socioeconomic and political development of Peru, and he largely stuck to that approach, even as short-term problems increasingly cried out for populist solutions. In so doing, Toledo’s vision often clashed with Peruvian realities. Popular Perceptions As President Toledo’s term in office drew to a close, a series of public opinion polls, most of which focused on the upcoming presidential elections, helped put the Toledo presidency in perspective. In late January 2006, Catholic University asked residents of the Lima-Callao metropolitan area which Peruvian president they preferred, listing all of them over the last fifty years. Alberto Fujimori received 34 percent of the votes, while Toledo received only 5 percent , three points less than the choice “none of the above.”1 In a nationwide poll conducted five months later, the University of Lima asked Peruvians to name the largest immediate problem for Peru. A grand total of 78 percent responded either corruption (29.9 percent), unemployment (27.4 percent), or poverty (20.8 percent), the very problems Toledo pledged to address when he Chapter Eight Peru 2006, a Report Card Peru 2006, a Report Card 187 took office five years earlier.2 In line with these attitudes, another University of Lima poll, conducted in the last month of the Toledo administration, found that almost 70 percent of the residents of the Lima-Callao metropolitan area believed the upper class had benefited most from the Toledo presidency.3 In the closing weeks of the Toledo administration, both APOYO and the Compañía Peruana de Estudios de Mercado y Opinión Pública (CPI) conducted final polls on the performance of the government, reporting mostly similar results. In a nationwide poll by APOYO that gave Toledo a 33 percent approval rating, the president received his highest marks in policy areas such as the control of terrorism, freedom of expression, and respect for human rights. He received his lowest marks in areas like poverty reduction, the control of corruption and delinquency, and judicial reform. When asked what were the most positive aspects of the Toledo government, Peruvians cited the Camisea Gas Project, the Southern Inter-oceanic Hub, the free trade agreement with the United States, the provision of housing, and economic stability. When asked to name the most negative aspects of the administration, family-related scandals , the attitudes and statements of First Lady Eliane Karp de Toledo, corruption , promising too much, and the failure to create jobs topped the list.4 Limited in scope to the Lima-Callao metropolitan area, the CPI poll gave President Toledo an end-term approval rating of 47.1 percent. Respondents cited the free trade agreement with the United States, the Camisea Gas Project , economic stability, housing construction, and the Southern Inter-oceanic Hub as the most important achievements of the Toledo administration. As for the negative aspects, the combination of family scandals, the bad image of the first lady, and family corruption topped the list with a combined total of 43.5 percent, almost twice the number of any other negative. Other issues mentioned included the failure to fulfill promises, nepotism, not generating employment, and too many trips abroad.5 Toledo began his elective political career in 1995 and after running in five consecutive presidential elections, if both first and second rounds are counted, he was finally elected president of Peru six years later in June 2001. Over that prolonged period of almost constant campaigning, he developed a vision for Peru that a growing number of Peruvians embraced with hope and enthusiasm . In the course of the 2000–2001 election campaign, for example, Toledo made a number of campaign promises, including the following: (1) to increase jobs, (2) to decrease poverty, especially extreme poverty, (3) to promote democratic reform, and (4) to encourage integrity in government. While his campaign promises did not differ radically from those offered by other candidates in the election, a significant part of...