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22 Government PR When the President Is Running for Reelection Horton at the National Defense Advisory Commission, June–November 1940 A s PR director for the Maritime Commission, Horton had to learn quickly the do’s and don’ts of government PR. It was not as though he had been thrown into the deep end of the pool, but professionally it was not the shallow end, either. The commission was engaging in major new spending, was significantly subsidizing shipbuilders and shipping lines, and, in some cases, outright owning and operating shipping enterprises. Still, with Congress’s declaration of purpose in the 1936 Merchant Marine Act, Horton was engaging in persuasive information efforts for widely held values that were largely noncontroversial (at least politically). If someone wanted to criticize him for doing more than neutrally disseminating information, they could have tried to make the case, but the red line he might have been accused of crossing into advocacy was a dull, rather than bright, one. In any event, there were no major and sustained criticisms of his PR record at the MC from conservative and anti-FDR members of Congress or the press corps. The next act would not be as easy. Spring of 1940 was a period of major developments, both internationally and politically (see table 2). The German invasion of western Europe proved enormously successful. Hitler now controlled France, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, and most of Norway. With France defeated, and Russia not a threat due to a nonaggression pact, Hitler could turn ferociously on Great Britain. Still reeling from the defeat of its expeditionary force in France, the near-miraculous evacuation from Dunkirk was hardly a victory. While it had saved military manpower, the matériel left chapter 2 23 Government PR When the President Is Running for Reelection behind had equipped an entire army. Whether for civilian or military needs, the United Kingdom depended greatly on ship-delivered supplies, but German submarines were sinking the ships faster than they could be replaced. The United States was legally neutral in the war, so England could depend only on its own stretched navy to protect convoys. Its fighter planes and pilots were in a similar situation, dueling it out against a larger Luftwaffe. Yes, Churchill’s indomitable personality and bottomless hostility to letting Germany win was a major factor in keeping the United Kingdom in the war. But, given the stunning fall of France, could Britain truly hold on alone, with only the Commonwealth countries aiding it? Would Churchill’s government fall and be replaced by one willing to negotiate an end to the war with Hitler? In retrospect, these counterfactual scenarios may seem far-fetched. At the time, however, with the end of the story still unknown, these potentialities were real and realistic. Truly, the Allies (effectively only Great Britain and the Commonwealth, with France defeated) were on the brink of collapse, and the United Kingdom was nearly broke. Roosevelt did not have much room to maneuver, internationally or politically . US public opinion was generally isolationist, and a majority in Congress opposed entering the war. Furthermore, it was a presidential election year, and an unusual one at that. Republicans thought they had an excellent chance of regaining the White House, perhaps as a result of voters’ Rooseveltfatigue , continued deficit spending, reaction to big government, and the party’s deep roots in conservative and isolationist Main Street (although it had equally thick links to internationalist Wall Street). If Roosevelt dared to run for an unprecedented third term, that could well be the winning issue for a Republican victory. If Roosevelt did not run, then Republicans’ chances were increased by the lack of an incumbent in the race. If Roosevelt tried to enter the war on Great Britain’s side, that would provide another boost to an antiwar Republican candidate. Politically, things could not have looked better for them. Roosevelt remained circumspect about any plans to run for reelection. He ostensibly encouraged a variety of candidates to seek the nomination, even appearing to indicate various degrees of public or private support for several of them. But he refused to say what he planned to do, keeping open the option of breaking with George Washington’s model of a two-term limit for presidents. There was a strong link between international and political developments. If the world was at war (even if the United States was not a 24 Promoting the War Effort combatant), would there be a strong preference by the...

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