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1 Considering the Consequences of Nuclear Weapons Use
- Johns Hopkins University Press
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C H A P T E R O N E Considering the Consequences of Nuclear Weapons Use As we contemplate the multitude of calamities that might happen in our world, very few seem as dreadful as another use of nuclear weapons in an attack on a city, or anywhere else. Because this prospect is indeed so horrible, relatively few people are ready to focus on it, to consider what would happen next. This book is intended to survey the probable consequences if nuclear weapons were to be used again in anger, for the first time since the bombing of Nagasaki in 1945. It is a speculative analysis of what the world’s likely reactions would be and of what the policy responses of the United States (and the other democracies) perhaps should be to such an awful event. The very worst breaking of the “nuclear taboo” would, of course, be a thermonuclear World War III, from which human life might never recover. The end of the Cold War has led most of us to conclude that the risks of such a nuclear holocaust are much reduced. This book assumes that to be true and therefore mostly addresses the many other ways in which nuclear weapons could again come into use (even while a thermonuclear exchange between the United States and Russia cannot be rated as totally impossible). Chapter 2 attempts to categorize and pull together some of the many ways in which such a use of nuclear weapons could occur. Chapters 3 and 4 sort the likely world reactions, and likely popular American reactions, to such an escalation . Chapter 5 puts forward some ideas on appropriate policy responses, and Chapter 6 adds some final thoughts. Rather than detailing the physical damage that would be inflicted in various kinds of a nuclear attack, which has been done many times since the onset of the Cold War,1 this book is a speculative exploration of the political, psychological, and social aftermath of the use of such weapons. First, however, this introduction will outline some general bounds to the probabilities. Pessimism or Optimism? To begin, this book is not premised on a pessimistic assumption that another use of nuclear weapons is very likely to occur. Instead, the entire study is based on the prudent assumption that it would be useful to have considered the consequences if such an event occurred, on the premise that a total surprise and lack of advance speculation would lead to less-than-optimal policy responses. Anyone embarking on this kind of speculation, however, runs the risk of being accused of pessimism, or indeed of favoring an early erasure of the “nuclear taboo,” the stigma that has kept such weapons from being used again, even though a great many have been produced during the past sixty years. At the minimum, someone opening up this question for analysis will be accused of risking the launching of a self-confirming hypothesis, in which the mere idea of such warfare leads someone else to anticipate such use, which in turn makes such an event more likely all around the system. Yet it has to be noted that the nuclear weapons question has been shaped by self-denying as well as by self-confirming hypotheses. The mere thought of a use of nuclear weapons, and of the damage that such weapons would cause, has driven many governments to devote extra effort to preventing their proliferation and use. If the outlines to be presented in this study were to do nothing more than reinforce the nuclear taboo, by making states more ready for any violation of it and better prepared to deter such a violation, the entire exercise would be of value. It will, therefore, be desirable to avoid excessively speculative analysis, while it will at the same time be important to broaden the horizon of the possibilities being considered. It will be important to note the most likely scenarios, while not ignoring those that are less likely and that might thus catch the world more by surprise. And it will be necessary to note the background factors that shape the entire array of possibilities being surveyed here. Important Background Factors First, the generally reduced incidence of normal inter-state war must be noted; most current uses of military force are within the boundaries of an established country rather than back and forth across the borders of states.2 The continuing evolution of economic interdependence, necessary for the 2 Nuclear First...