Democracy Delayed: The Case of Castro's Cuba

Notes

Notes Introduction 1. In a subsequent book, co-authored with Mark R. Thompson and Steven Saxonberg , we will compare the transitions in Eastern Europe with transitions and non-transitions in other parts of the world. The book is tentatively entitled Transitions and Nontransitions from Communism: Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America and Africa. 2. O’Donnell, “Introduction to the Latin American Cases,” in O’Donnell, Schmitter, and Whitehead, eds., Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Latin America, 10; Saxonberg, The Fall, chaps. 8 and 10. 3. Mark Thompson, “Whatever Happened to Democratic Revolutions?” 4. Przeworski, “Transition to Democracy,” 48. 5. Fearon, “Counterfactuals,” 169, 176, 177, 193, and 194. 6. Huntington, The Third Wave, 45–46 and 106–8. 7. An example is Przeworski, Democracy and the Market. 8. Collier and Mahoney, “Insights and Pitfalls,” 64, 67, 72, and 73. 9. López, “Theory Choice.” 10. Domínguez, “Why the Cuban Regime Has Not Fallen,” 697. 11. Saxonberg, The Fall, 158. 12. Grupo de Trabajo de la Disidencia Interna Cubana, “Cuba: Una propuesta sensata ,” 27. 13. Victor Rolando Arroyo, “La UJC no supera crisis de deserciones y apatia,” CubaNet, January 11, 2001. 14. Lorenzo Téllez, “Visas seguras para aparentes miembros del partido,” CubaNet, March 6, 2000. 15. Rui Ferreira, “Lanzan campaña de readoctrinamiento en Cuba,” El Nuevo Herald, July 4, 2000. 16. “Homegrown” stands for some type of legitimacy, nationalism being the most obvious. As with other types of legitimacy, the association between nationalism and the regime can deteriorate, for example as in Cuba. 17. Jorge Domínguez argues that an important factor explaining why the Castro government has not fallen is that, in contrast to countries in Eastern Europe, the Cuban regime enjoys legitimacy among the population; see Domínguez, “The Secrets of Castro ’s Staying Power,” 97–98. 18. Przeworski, “Transition to Democracy,” 50–53. 19. This argument is made quite frequently; see, for example, Domínguez, “Why the Cuban Regime Has Not Fallen,” 698; Schultz, “Introduction,” 2; González, Cuba Clearing Perilous Waters? 79–80; and Alejandro Portes, “Under Helms–Burton: Cuba Struggles But It’s Not Vanquished,” Miami Herald, November 25, 1996. 20. Bunce, Subversive Institutions, 132. 21. Ricardo Alarcón, president of the National Assembly, stated that Helms–Burton is very useful for the Castro regime in ideologically motivating young people. Larry Rohter , “Cuba Taking a Harder Line,” New York Times, March 31, 1996. 22. José Rivero García, “La Verdad Desnuda,” CubaPress, March 2, 1996; declaration of the Partido Liberal Democrático de Cuba, April 8, 1997, distributed by CubaNet; “Cuba en la VI cumbre iberoamericana,” Revista Contacto (November 1996); Roberts et al., “Measuring Cuban Public Opinion: Project Report,” v. 23. Eyal, “Why Romania Could Not Avoid Bloodshed,” 155. 24. “Revista católica lamenta discriminación económica,” El Nuevo Herald, October 29, 1999. 25. Roberts et al., “Measuring Cuban Public Opinion: Project Report,” v, 63, and 107. 26. González and Ronsfeldt, Storm Warnings for Cuba; and Centeno, “Cuba’s Search for Alternatives.” For a description of obstacles put by the state on Cuban private entrepreneurs , see Ulises Cabrera, “Cronica de un cuentapropista,” Agencia de Prensa Independiente de Cuba, August 14, 1996, and Juan O. Tamayo, “Cuban Inspectors Crack Down on Home Businesses,” Miami Herald, March 27, 1997. 27. According to Brown, in the German Democratic Republic and Romania, two regimes very unreceptive to perestroika, the state’s refusal to reform antagonized the population to the point of open rebellion; Brown, Surge to Freedom, 127. 28. Domínguez, “Why the Cuban Regime Has Not Fallen,” 693. 29. For a list of dissident/opposition organizations, as of March 31, 1998, see “Lista de organizaciones disidentes, opositoras y de derechos humanos,” compiled by the Christian Democratic Party of Cuba (http://www.pdc-cuba.org/lista.htm). For one estimate of the number of political prisoners as of July 1999, see “Fin de 40 días de ayuno y crean el Foro Nacional,” Diario las Américas, July 17, 1999. 30. Domínguez, “Why the Cuban Regime Has Not Fallen,” 694. 31. Here is an illuminating example. In November 1999, the police conducted massive home search operations in the municipality of Morón, looking for people who had beef or lobster in their refrigerators. Heavy fines were imposed on citizens who had these foods and their refrigerators were confiscated; Ramón Negrín Jiménez, “Registros policiales y decomisos masivos en Ciego de Avila,” CubaNet, December 9, 1999. 32. Aguirre, “Culture of Opposition and Collective Action in Cuba...