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ix Israel’s history, its travails and accomplishments, especially in the area of national security, have been a lifelong passion. Having been born in the United States in the post–World War II era, following the Holocaust, I have always felt extraordinarily privileged to have been able to enjoy the magnificent freedoms and opportunities America affords and for which I bear an unabashed reverence. But for a geographic accident of birth, neither my family nor I might have been alive to share these blessings. After the Jewish people’s two-thousand-year saga of exile, persecution, and achievement, I have always felt especially fortunate to have been born shortly after Israel’s rebirth and that it was important that I make my life in Israel, participate in some small way in its stormy and dramatic history, and enjoy the freedoms and opportunities it, too, affords. As such, this is a work of love, embedded in a lifelong commitment to Zionism, along with deeply felt frustration over Israel’s shortcomings and failings, which I have long observed as a citizen, soldier, civil servant, and now scholar. This book is not part of the “revisionist history” popular in recent years among some Israeli scholars, whose often highly biased attempts to redress the biases of some of their predecessors have added little to our objective understanding of the Israeli experience. It is an attempt to describe Israel’s national security decision-making processes as they truly are. I wish that the picture presented could have been far more positive and laudatory. I would have greatly preferred to extol than to criticize, but only a cold, unforgiving, and “objective” analysis, to the extent that I am capable of it, does justice to the importance of the subject and as such truly serves Israel’s cause. Preface and Acknowledgments PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS x Perhaps the most frustrating part of my writing experience was to discuss my findings with former colleagues, senior officials, and academic experts and see them shrug their shoulders in a “so what else is new?” response . Indeed, many of the decision-making pathologies depicted in this book have long been known to those familiar with Israel. What is truly new, in addition to important specific observations and findings, is that the book constitutes the first attempt to set these pathologies out systematically and to submit them to rigorous analysis. To the extent that it contributes to our understanding of the problems and, I hope, to their partial alleviation, it will have more than justified the time and effort invested. This book would not have been completed without the help of many others . First and foremost, I wish to express my deep thanks and admiration to the indomitable Professor Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. In what was the shortest meeting I have ever had prior to being offered a position, Graham immediately understood the importance of this work and undertook to provide the Belfer Center’s outstanding academic auspices as the home base for my work. He is one of the all-time political science greats, and working with him on the book and a variety of other areas has been a true pleasure. His insights have proved invaluable. The Belfer Center, under his direction, is one of the more intellectually stimulating places one could want to be. Similarly, I thank Professor Steven Miller, director of the International Studies Program (ISP) at the Belfer Center, for being my direct host, for his warmth and support throughout, and for the numerous fascinating conversations we have had on a variety of issues. I have benefited greatly from Steve’s encyclopedic knowledge and penetrating analyses. My warm appreciation to Professors Robert Jervis and Richard Pious for nurturing a much earlier version of this work through a lengthy gestation period at Columbia University. I am indebted to Professor Jervis for opening up the world of decision-making theory to me, including his own outstanding works, and for facilitating this project in its final book form. Professor Pious’s rapier Socratic teaching methods provided for the most challenging class of my life, not a few missed heart beats, and an unparalleled learning experience. I am particularly indebted to Professor Robert Art of Brandeis University, who reviewed this book on behalf of the Cornell Security Studies series, for his truly extraordinary assistance. Bob is an author’s dream. Not only does he immediately spot a manuscript’s...

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