Energy Transition in Africa

Preface

Energy Transition in Africa ix Preface The world’s energy consumption and demand is increasing exponentially . In 2007, the world consumed an estimated 18 trillion kWh of generated energy. By 2030, the demand for energy will have increased to 31 trillion kWh, of which an estimated 20 trillion will be generated from renewable sources. Of critical concern is that the world’s supply of fossil fuels and its reserves are decreasing, and locating new reserves has become difficult. Thus it is imperative to explore renewable sources of energy. The need to migrate to renewable energy is further driven by people’s desire and commitment to halt climate change and its effects. This shift in energy sources pose both a challenge and opportunity for Africa, as it will need substantial investment in infrastructure, technology and human capital to be able to catch up with the international trends of generating and supplying energy from renewable sources. Africa has the advantage that it is endowed with abundant sources of renewable energy, which, if fully exploited, can place the continent at the forefront of the world’s energy production and supply. An indication of the interest in Africa, is that the Desertec Foundation intends to use solar power generated in Africa to supply Europe with 15 per cent of its energy needs through an investment of €400 billion from 2011 to 2031. While this appears to hold hope for Africa, the reality is that the continent still has a huge shortage of energy. Only 34 per cent of Africa’s population have access to modern forms of energy, with large disparities between countries, and between urban and rural areas within countries . The energy supplies will have to increase at least four- to sixfold by 2025 for the continent to meet its energy needs. Currently, 30 African countries experience chronic blackouts. Therefore power shortages are the single most debilitating on Africa’s economic growth. The most severe challenges facing Africa with regard to energy generation include inadequate development of the energy infrastructure, high capital costs attached to energy projects, the lack of finance and investment in energy projects, and lack of technical expertise. Solving these problems will require efficient planning, investment and efficient x Energy Transition in Africa Preface use of resources. Poor planning complicates Africa’s energy problem, which is directly linked to the outdated infrastructure, technologies and insufficient expertise and skills to manage the existing infrastructure . We therefore need to develop a thorough understanding of possible directions that Africa can follow. This book opens a debate on how Africa can develop the right combination of infrastructure, resources, investment and human capital to generate sufficient energy for itself from renewable sources, while supplying the surplus to the rest of the world. The topology of the power system is transforming, as new concepts, such as smart grids, microgrids and mini-grids, are introduced. The book is therefore published at a critical juncture, as African governments , foreign investors and private investors are poised to roll out renewable energy projects across the continent. The overall objective of this book is to provide a background and predictions for strategists to develop a master strategy for energy generation and distribution in Africa at this moment of energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources and technologies. The debate must occur at all levels, from governments working in regional power pools to engineers and investors to end-users. Generally, the inadequacy in providing conclusive information about energy demand , production and supply in Africa has restricted the development of a broader understanding of the dynamics of the continent’s energy needs and scarcity. ...