American Diversity: A Demographic Challenge for the Twenty-first Century

4. Racial and Ethnic Fertility Differentials in the United States

Chapter 4 Racial and Ethnic Fertility Differentials in the United States Gray Swicegood and S. Philip Morgan 99 Introduction The racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. population is changing. This is “old news” that demographers have been delivering for some time now, but their message has been largely understood in terms of the high volume of immigration from Latin America and Asia during the last two decades. The contribution of differential childbearing patterns across racial and ethnic groups to the ongoing diversification of the American population is often overlooked. In this paper we examine the impact, extent, and nature of fertility differentials and highlight several key issues drawn from the research literature on this topic. In the first section, we demonstrate that current fertility differentials substantially affect the growth rates of racial/ethnic groups. Next, we provide a descriptive account of recent fertility differences across various segments of the population along with some historical perspectives on these differences. Third, we consider the childbearing patterns of immigrant groups in the United States and the disparate fertility regimes of Black and White American women. Immigration has greatly increased the presence of many national origin groups with widely disparate fertility levels , while the African American population provides an example of demographic divergence after decades of expected and to some extent actual convergence. Focusing on these groups further illustrates the range of childbearing patterns in the country and provides a platform for introducing some of the theoretical issues involved in the explanation of this variation . In the final section of the paper, we assess the current state of research in this area. This body of literature is large, and undoubtedly, we will not comment on or even allude to all the important work. Our goal is to provide an overview of the main features of past studies and to identify some emerging lines of inquiry. The major points we develop are: • Childbearing varies considerably across racial and ethnic groups in the United States. • Differential fertility contributes substantially to the growth of some racial/ethnic groups. • Diminution of fertility differentials is not inevitable. Indeed, we discuss recent examples of diverging fertility among some groups. • Adequate explanation of differential fertility requires greater attention to sociological factors that generate and sustain both structural differentiation and distinctive cultural environments. The Impact of Differential Fertility on Changing Population Composition Figure 4.1 Population Percentages by Race, 1810-2050 Source: McDaniel 1995. Figure 4.1 places current discussions of population composition in historical perspective (McDaniel, 1995). Initially, we focus on five racial/ethnic categories : Hispanic, Asian, American Indian (Native American), African, and European. In the Nineteenth Century the largest non-European groups were Gray Swicegood and S. Philip Morgan 100 Indians and Africans. Their proportions declined due to the decimation of the American Indian population by warfare and disease and due to the large influx of Northern and, later, of Southern Europeans. The proportion of Europeans surpassed 80% early in the Twentieth Century. Ironically, this is the period when concerns about the composition of the population reached their peak. Many in this period were concerned about the increasing proportion of the population of Southern European origin. The 1950-1990 period shows large increases in the proportion of the population which was Hispanic and Asian which correspond to a greater attention to large flows of Hispanic and Asian immigrants. The 2000 to 2050 estimates are U.S. Census Bureau projections that will be discussed below. How important is differential fertility across these categories in producing changes in the U.S. population composition? We noted above that mortality increase was a key factor leading to population decline for Native Americans in the Nineteenth Century. Immigration was clearly important to the historical growth of the European population as well as the contemporary increases in the country’s Hispanic and Asian populations. Theoretically, fertility differences across groups can also be a powerful source of differential growth. The demographers ’ balancing equation shows that population growth equals the net migration rate plus the difference in crude birth and death rates (e.g., births and deaths per 1,000 population). Thus, an important impact on differential growth depends on substantial differences in fertility between groups. Table 4.1 Total Fertility Rates by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050 RACE/HISPANIC ORIGIN Not of Hispanic Origin Hispanic White African Native Asian American American Year: 1995 2,650 1,850 2,450 2,900...