Emerging Avian Disease: Published for the Cooper Ornithological Society

6 PROTOTYPE SYSTEM FOR TRACKING AND FORECASTING HIGHLY PATHOGENIC H5N1 AVIAN INFLUENZA SPREAD IN NORTH AMERICA

67 Peterson, A. T. 2012. Prototype system for tracking and forecasting highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza spread in North America. Pp. 67–80 in E. Paul (editor). Emerging avian disease. Studies in Avian Biology (vol. 42), University of California Press, Berkeley, CA. CHAPTER SIX Prototype System for Tracking and Forecasting Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza Spread in North America A. Townsend Peterson Abstract. The recent emergence of a highly pathogenic strain (H5N1) of avian influenza that affects both birds and humans has raised global concern about its spread. Given the rapid spread of the disease and the desire for proactive monitoring and preparedness, I present a prototype forecasting framework for H5N1 dispersal for when/ if it arrives in North America via migratory bird movements. The prototype summarizes movement patterns by six species of arctic-breeding Anseriformes and emphasizes the importance of spread along all coasts of North America, as well as along the lower Mississippi River. This forecasting system is applicable only to the extent that migratory birds are the principal mode of dispersal and spread of the disease. The H5N1 situation calls for considerable effort in (1) understanding details of bird migration globally, (2) sharing avian biodiversity data globally, and (3) exploring novel approaches to data analysis and interpretation. Key Words: avian influenza, forecasting, H5N1, migratory birds, waterbirds. Un Sistema Prototipo para Rastrear y Predecir la Expansión de la Influenza Aviar Altamente Infecciosa H5N1 en Norte América Resumen. La reciente aparición de la cepa altamente patogénica (H5N1) de la influenza aviar que afecta tanto a las aves como a los humanos ha generado una preocupación global acerca de su expansi ón. Dada la rápida expansión de la enfermedad y el deseo proactivo de un monitoreo y preparación temprana, se presenta el marco de un prototipo para la predicción de la dispersión del H5N1 por medio de los movimientos de las aves migratorias para/por cuando/si llegue/llega en Norte América. El prototipo resume los patrones de movimiento de seis especies de Anseriformes que se reproducen en el Ártico, y enfatiza la importancia de la expansi ón a lo largo de todas las costas de Norte América, así como también a lo largo de la parte baja del Río Mississippi. El sistema de monitoreo es útil unicamente en situaciones donde las aves migratorias son el principal modo de dispersión y expansión de la enfermedad. La situación del H5N1 requiere de un esfuerzo considerable para (1) entender los detalles de la migración de las aves a nivel global, (2) compartir la información sobre la biodiversidad de las aves a nivel global, y (3) explorar nuevas formas de analizar e interpretar la información. Palabras Clave: aves acuáticas, aves migratorias, H5N1, influenza aviar, predicción. STUDIES IN AVIAN BIOLOGY NO. 42 Paul 68 Indonesia (February 2004), and People’s Republic of China (February 2004). The next set of appearances began with records in People’s Republic of China, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam in June and July of 2004, and then in Malaysia (August 2004). After a pause late in 2004, a large outbreak occurred at Qinghai Lake in central China (April 2005) where 6,000⫹ wild birds died, as did poultry in Xinjiang Autonomous Region, western China (June 2005), both well to the northwest of previous detections. In quick succession, outbreaks then occurred in western Siberia (Russia, July 2005), Kazakhstan (August 2005), Tibet (August 2005), and Mongolia (August 2005). Finally, late in 2005, HP-H5N1 appeared in Turkey, Romania, Taiwan, and Croatia (all in October 2005), and later in Cyprus, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq (late 2005–early 2006). As of 2007, the virus had been detected across almost all of Europe and the Middle East, in numerous southern and eastern Asian countries (all except Nepal and Bhutan), as well as in several countries in West Africa and the northeastern portion of Africa (Egypt and Sudan; Alexander 2007). To summarize, from an initial appearance in Southeast Asia, HP-H5N1 spread quickly up the Pacific coast as far as Japan and Korea. It then jumped northward into central Asia, and then appeared to the southwest in the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. These “jumps” have led many to expect increasingly rapid spread, perhaps even globally, in coming years. In reality, though, the apparent extreme rapidity of the spread (particularly in 2005–2006) is most likely a reflection of establishment of surveillance programs...