The Presidential Expectations Gap: Public Attitudes Concerning the Presidency

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The Presidential Expectations Gap For several decades, political observers have noted that public expectations of the U.S. president are becoming increasingly excessive and unreasonable . Today, all presidents confront an expectations gap—the difference between what the public expects them to accomplish and what is actually possible for them to accomplish. Despite the abundance of anecdotal evidence and conventional wisdom regarding the expectations gap, few scholars have attempted to test the expectations gap thesis empirically . Richard Waterman, Carol L. Silva, and Hank Jenkins-Smith conduct the first systematic study to determine whether the expectations gap does in fact exist and to identify the factors that contribute to the public’s disappointment in a given president. Using data from five original surveys, they confirm that the expectations gap is manifest in public opinion, that it leads to lower approval ratings, and that it lowers the chance that a president will be reelected. The gap even contributes to the success of the political party that does not hold the White House in congressional midterm elections. More broadly, the authors find that the expectations gap is entangled with the effects of partisanship, as well as with declining levels of trust in leadership. This study provides important insights not only on the American presidency and public opinion but also on trust in government. Richard Waterman is Professor of Political Science at the University of Kentucky. Carol L. Silva is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Risk and Crisis Management at the University of Oklahoma. Hank Jenkins-Smith is Professor of Political Science and Associate Director of the Center for Risk and Crisis Management at the University of Oklahoma. The Presidential Expectations Gap Public Attitudes Concerning the Presidency Richard Waterman, Carol L. Silva, and Hank Jenkins-Smith The University of Michigan Press Ann Arbor Copyright © by the University of Michigan 2014 All rights reserved This book may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, including illustrations, in any form (beyond that copying permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law and except by reviewers for the public press), without written permission from the publisher. Published in the United States of America by The University of Michigan Press Manufactured in the United States of America c Printed on acid-free paper 2017 2016 2015 2014 4 3 2 1 A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Waterman, Richard W. The presidential expectations gap : public attitudes concerning the presidency / Richard Waterman, Carol L. Silva, Hank Jenkins-Smith. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-472-11914-1 (hardback) — ISBN 978-0-472-02971-6 (e-book) 1. Presidents—United States—Public opinion. 2. United States— Politics and government. I. Silva, Carol L. II. Jenkins-Smith, Hank C. III. Title. JK516.W377 2014 352.230973—dc23 2013036410 ...