American Public Opinion on the Iraq War

Preface

Preface When a prospectus for this book was sent out to external reviewers, one of them raised a very telling question: “What makes the author believe that the Iraq War will be ‹nished by mid-2010?” We have now reached early 2011 and several observations are in order. The outgoing George W. Bush administration signed an agreement with the Nuri al-Maliki government in November 2008 calling for the withdrawal of all American forces from Iraq by the end of 2011. Although sectarian violence has declined since the near–civil war of 2006–7, it continues to take a heavy toll on Iraqi civilians, and the important elections scheduled for January 2010 had to be postponed for two months owing to continuing disagreements among sectarian groups. After the elections were held in March, the various parties were unable to form a ruling coalition until November 2010. At the same time, the monthly total of American military casualties reached a postinvasion low of three—all in noncombat incidents—in December 2009. On August 2, 2010, President Obama declared that U.S. combat brigades would be withdrawn by the end of the month, “as promised and on schedule,” and the withdrawal was in fact completed in a timely manner. That said, one of the most prescient analysts of the war, Thomas E. Ricks, forecast that what he has called “the American military adventure in Iraq” will persist long beyond the date stipulated by the Bush–al-Maliki agreement, and indeed, that we may be only halfway through our active engagement in Iraq. Whatever the accuracy of the Ricks forecast, because the focus of this book is on public opinion, 2010 represents a reasonable end point. The evidence of public disenchantment and deep partisan divisions aroused by the war, as described in the chapters that follow, is unlikely to change signi‹cantly, barring dramatic and unforeseen developments on the ground in Iraq. Moreover, the economic consequences of the ‹nancial collapse of 2008 and the war in Afghanistan have displaced Iraq at the top of public attention, and as a consequence , the major survey organizations have sharply curtailed polling on the Iraq War. Stated differently, it seems unlikely that the vast volume of survey data on Iraq generated during the 2003–9 period will be matched in the future. In undertaking this book, I have been bene‹ciary of the talents, kindness, and insights of many friends and colleagues. Andy Bell, Peter Feaver, and Tim Lomperis and three anonymous external reviewers for the University of Michigan Press read the entire manuscript and offered a good deal of useful advice on how to improve it. Andy Bell also formatted ‹gures 2.1 through 2.5 and assisted with the index. Michael Cobb was an especially insightful discussant on a paper at the 2008 American Political Science Association conference. Richard Sobel, Bethany Barratt, and Peter Furia provided useful comments on an early draft of chapter 2.Lecture audiences at Catholic University in Belo Horizonte,Brazil,and at the Catholic University of Brasilia, the University of Brasilia, and Brigham Young University raised a number of thought-provoking questions that required me to sharpen the analysis. Juliano Cortinhas, who arranged my trip to Brasilia, also made a number of useful suggestions. Elizabeth Kelly, an undergraduate at Duke University, was an exceptional research assistant who always went well beyond the assigned tasks to ‹nd a new source of valuable information. Anne Marie Boyd, whose title of research secretary did not fully describe the range of her many talents, worked with me during the initial stages of this project . It was our fourth book together. Kathy Tutson and Laura Satter‹eld later provided exceptionally valuable assistance in typing and formatting the manuscript . Finally, my ability to complete this project owes a great deal to the professional expertise and kindness of Dr. Heather Gilbert and Dr. Joseph Moore. This is my fourth book with the University of Michigan Press. It has always been a pleasure to work with the staff of the UMP. Melody Herr, Acquisitions Editor, offered exceptional support since the inception of this project, and Janice Brill provided outstanding copyediting. I am deeply grateful to all of the above for their valuable contributions. Any remaining de‹ciencies must, alas, be laid at my doorstep. The triple dedication is to my beloved daughter, son-in-law, and two grandsons ; to my brother and his lovely wife; and to the thousands of students I have known—and learned a great deal...