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War and Peace in International Rivalry

Paul F. Diehl and Gary Goertz

Publication Year: 2000

This book provides the first detailed analysis of international rivalries, the long-standing and often violent confrontations between the same pairs of states. The book addresses conceptual components of rivalries and explores the origins, dynamics, and termination of the most dangerous form of rivalry--enduring rivalry--since 1816. Paul Diehl and Gary Goertz identify 1166 rivalries since 1816. They label sixty-three of those as enduring rivalries. These include the competitions between the United States and Soviet Union, India and Pakistan, and Israel and her Arab neighbors. The authors explain how rivalries form, evolve, and end. The first part of the book deals with how to conceptualize and measure rivalries and presents empirical patterns among rivalries in the period 1816-1992. The concepts derived from the study of rivalries are then used to reexamine two central pieces of international relations research, namely deterrence and "democratic peace" studies. The second half of the book builds an explanation of enduring rivalries based on a theory adapted from evolutionary biology, "punctuated equilibrium." The study of international rivalries has become one of the centerpieces of behavioral research on international conflict. This book, by two of the scholars who pioneered such studies, is the first comprehensive treatment of the subject. It will become the standard reference for all future studies of rivalries. Paul F. Diehl is Professor of Political Science and University Distinguished Teacher/Scholar, University of Illinois. He is the coeditor of Reconstructing Realpolitik and coauthor of Measuring the Correlates of War. Gary Goertz is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Arizona, and is the coauthor with Paul Diehl of Territorial Change and International Conflict.

Published by: University of Michigan Press

List of Tables

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pp. vii-viii

List of Figures

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pp. ix-x

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Acknowledgments

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pp. xi-xii

We have received significant support from a number of programs and institutions in completing this manuscript. We would like to express our deep appreciation to all of them. The National Science Foundation (grant no. SES- 9309840) provided much of the early support for our work...

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1. Introduction

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pp. 1-14

Since its origins, the study of international relations has centered on the analysis of war. This analysis has taken on various forms: Small and Singer (1982) and Bueno de Mesquita (1981) examined all wars since 1816, Jervis (1976) chose wars that related to his specific purposes...

I. The Rivalry Approach to War and Peace

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2. The Concept and Measurement of Rivalries

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pp. 17-48

The concept of militarized rivalries lies at the core of our project. The existence of standard data sets of wars and disputes means that the concept and operational definition of war are now largely agreed upon, at least in practice. In contrast, the concept of a rivalry, particularly a nonenduring one, is new and cannot be taken for granted...

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3. The Empirical Importance of the Rivalry Concept

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pp. 49-66

We argue throughout this book that the rivalry approach provides a different, and novel, perspective on the issues of international war and peace. Enduring rivalries have drawn the attention of researchers because they represent dangerous dyads. Although it is easy to name prominent enduring rivalries-as one can do with prominent wars...

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4. The Rivalry Approach to War and Peace

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pp. 67-84

Rivalries are not merely a new topic of research-an extension of the logic behind studying "dangerous dyads" (Bremer 1992)-nor are they simply a useful research tool and case selection device. Part of what has hindered a clear understanding of the wide-ranging ramifications of the rivalry concept comes from an exclusive focus on enduring rivalries...

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5. Rivalries as a Testing Methodology

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pp. 85-106

The previous chapter showed that the rivalry approach gives us a new perspective on war and conflict. Yet the rivalry approach does not merely require new ways of theorizing about the traditional foci of studies of international conflict. Such changes must be accompanied by new ways of testing hypotheses. This means alterations in the research...

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6. The Rivalry Approach to the Democratic Peace

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pp. 107-128

We have emphasized that the rivalry approach applies to issues of both war and peace. In the last two chapters, we have focused on the conflictual side in our use of deterrence theory as a continuing example. Here we redress the balance by addressing the issue of the democratic peace through the rivalry lens. More specifically, we consider how the rivalry approach...

II. Enduring Rivalries

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7. A Punctuated Equilibrium Model of Enduring Rivalries

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pp. 131-142

Our project consists of two connected parts, the first is a new way of thinking about international conflict-the rivalry approach; the second involves exploring an important class of conflict phenomena suggested by the rivalry approach~nduring rivalries. In part 1, we focused on the rivalry approach by defining the core concept...

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8. An Overview of Enduring Rivalries and Enduring Rivalries Research

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pp. 143-162

Studying enduring rivalries narrows our focus from over one thousand rivalries of all varieties to only a small fraction of them, and an even smaller fraction of possible dyadic combinations. Nevertheless, much of the history of international war and peace over the past two centuries revolves around these pairs of states. In this chapter, we present...

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9. Stability in Enduring Rivalries

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pp. 163-184

The punctuated equilibrium model in its various forms-biological, organizational and enduring rivalry-stresses that phenomena go through long periods of stasis. Formulated in the enduring rivalry context, this means that the "basic relationship" of rivals does not vary much over time...

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10. The Conflict Management of Enduring Rivalries

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pp. 185-220

In this chapter we pursue two agenda items: (1) our continuing evaluation of the punctuated equilibrium model of enduring rivalry and (2) the use of the rivalry approach in the analysis of conflict management in enduring rivalries. Our analysis of the punctuated equilibrium model in the previous chapter focused on escalatory processes, whereas here...

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11. Breaking the Stability of Rivalries: The Impact of Political Shocks

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pp. 221-240

Over the previous two chapters we have emphasized the stability of enduring rivalries, but enduring rivalries also begin and end. The same is true of all biological species: they develop and eventually go extinct. The punctuated equilibrium model, both in biology and in its enduring rivalry version, argues that major shocks set the stage for enduring rivalries or species...

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12. Linkages between Enduring Rivalries

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pp. 241-262

The previous chapter focused on one way that the international environment influences enduring rivalries: systematic shocks provide the occasion for the initiation and termination of many rivalries. Within the punctuated equilibrium framework, it is not so much the structure of the international environment that matters, but rather the change in that structure...

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13. Future Research

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pp. 263-278

In conclusion, we take the occasion of this chapter, not so much to look backward and summarize the previous 12 chapters of the book, but rather to direct our attention forward to areas of future research. We have stressed that the rivalry approach has implications for data, testing, and theory. We use these three broad categories to examine the general rivalry...

Appendix A: The Rivalry Web Site

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pp. 279-280

Appendix B: An Index of Dispute Severity

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pp. 281-298

References

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pp. 299-314

Index

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pp. 315-319


E-ISBN-13: 9780472026913
E-ISBN-10: 0472026917
Print-ISBN-13: 9780472088485
Print-ISBN-10: 0472088483

Page Count: 336
Illustrations: 12 charts and tables
Publication Year: 2000