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Appendixes
- University of Michigan Press
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APPENDIX A Design & Data Sources ~ THE SAMPLE OF PEROT CALLERS Our analysis of the Perot effect relies primarily on a sample of callers to the Perot headquarters' toll-fi'ee number in 195:) 384 119 984 573 749 52.1 235 50 739 461 573 412 16(, 49 572 334 444 2~' I~ 128 62 Response Rate (%) 69.3 711.') SX.h 6').') 31.0 58.2 69.8 21.3 62.0 71.9 29.5 58.4 61.3 48.4 Response Rate as Percentage of Original Number of Surveys Sent Out (Response rate as percentage of original number ofrespondents appears in parentheses.) 69.3 (100) 49.2 (70.9) 40.6 (S/i.6) 30.1 (43.4) 24.2 (34.5) 17.5 (25.3) .\'(l{L'; Preapproach lll()()O respondent 313 0.179 0.555 Acti\'ity for Dubkis-Bentsen, 1988 200n nonrespondent 1,000 0.185 0.521 2000 respondent 313 0.211 0.594 Activity for DClllocratic nOl11illatioll 2000 nonrespondent 1,(1111) (1.4-17 0.885 candidates, I')l):::> 2000 respondent .'\1.' ( I.-I():; 0.920 Democratic HOU"l' activit)', 1902 2000 nonrespondent 64,1 1).12K 0.449 2000 respondent 286 1l.lhH 0.586 Activity for Clinton-Core, I()'):' 2000 nonrespondent h·D ().:l2N 0.740 2000 respondent 2S(, O..lIlS O.76S Perot activity: preparty COll\-l'IltioTls, 2000 nonrcspondent I,UI)II lAKO lAIO 19'!2a 2(J()(J respondent 313 1.49[-; 1.417 Perot-Stockdale activity, fall campaign, 1000 Ilollrcspondent 643 1.031 1.1 'JI 1992 20110 respondent 286 1.014 1.262 *1' uJl Perot isslll' ]llust ilnport';)·1.46')*** (11.4')3) -(1..)('(' (0.5%) -0.859 (0.554) -1.855 (1.486) -2.937** (1.432) 16.138*** C~Ll) 1).1 Nq 12~'J() I.;. ,17*** () 17 Standardized Coefficient O.I)O() -11.11')11 O.IlL,) 0.115 -(l.OSS 0.400 -0.026 -IlJ)62 -II.IIM --II.1()~ JThis tal1k pm\"ldl" tlw ~t (O.m2) -0.(11)'pCr1CllCed I )clllocratlc l.-Joust' CJndhhte Experienced Republican House candidate Delllocratic illlUJllbent LUl, 1994 Natllnllog of nOllincumbent Repuhlican c:-,,:,pl'nditurc,\ Natural log of noninclll1lbent Democratic expellditures NatLLLlllog of incumbent llemocratlc c'\pl'nditllre\ C:ombincd congressional quarterly presidential support, 1993-94 Prc.788 24,366*** 89 ,IThi.3-14 ')2.396*** '11 JThis Llbk provides the statisticallllodel behind fib'Ure 8.6. *p 3 0.207 0.811 -0.444 2.453 276 APPENDIXES TABLE B.17. Republican Party Congressional Campaign Activity by Perot Activity (1994-2000)" 1996 1996 1998 1998 2000 2000 Independent Variable Coefficient Mean Coefficient Mean Coefficient Mean I (11.1124) 11.;1.1, 11.,l. ll.a. ll.:l. 0.156*** (0.057) 0.156 0.630 11.222*** 278 OJI55 0.922 (0.111 H) 0.038 ((.517 (0.027) 0.1137 I).IS; (0.O(,3) CI.()2lJ*** 2.561 (lUll I) IJ.()10 (1.013 111.(17) -11.020 -0.617 (11.008) n.:1. !l.a, IJ.(l17 (11.1140) 11.185 0..)1) 1 9.65')*** 2311 [44.200.182.101] Project MUSE (2024-03-29 08:40 GMT) Appendixes 277 TABLE B.1S. "Value-Added" Spillover from 1992 Perot Activism to 2000 Republican House Campaign Activism by Contact from 2000 Republican Campaigns' Independent Variable 1988 Republican campaign activity 1992 Republican general election activity 1992 Republican nomination activity Activity for Perot, 1992 Party identification, 1992 Level ofRepublican contact, 2000 Degree of preference for Democratic House Candidate Interaction of Perot activity and Republican contact Republican House activity 1994 Constant Adjusted R' Standard error of estimate F N 'This table provides the statistical model behind figure 9.5. *p < .10 **p < .OS ***p < .01 b (standard errors in parentheses) 0.029* (0.017) 0.045* (0.026) 0.054 (0.059) -0.002 (0.012) -0.004 (0.016) -0.013 (0.046) -0.014* (0.008) 0.056*** (0.013) 0.060* (0.033) -0.020 (0.045) 0.300 0.363 11.833 229 Mean 0.923 0.520 0.188 2.57 0.017 0.546 -0.620 1.463 0.489 TABLE B.19. Democratic Party Congressional Campaign Activity by Perot Activity (1994-2000)' 1994 1994 1996 1996 1998 1998 Independent Variable Coefficient Mean Coefficient Mean Coefficient Mean 1988 Democratic campaign activity 0.095*** 0.658 -0.013 0.689 0.038 0.662 (0.024) (0.027) (0.025) 1992 Democratic general election activity 0.079*** 0.701 0.139*** 0.714 0.098*** 0.748 (0.024) (0.027) (0.025) 1992 Democratic nomination activity 0.139*** 0.487 0.021 0.529 0.073* 0.511 (0.040) (0.040) (0.040) Activity for Perot, 1992 0.018 2.623 -0.001 2.564 -0.008 2.525 (0.012) (0.017) (0.012) Party identification, 1992 -0.048** 0.207 0.012 0.136 -0.013 0.058 (0.021) (0.023) (0.019) Preference for Democratic House candidate 0.079*** -0.444 0.079*** -0.743 n.a. 11.a. (CJ.()19) (0.015) Perot-Choate activity, 1996 n.a.b n.a. -0.084 0.354 n.a. 11.a. (0.047) Constant 0.132*** 0.157*** 0.030 (0.049) (0.054) (0.046) Adjusted R' 0.349 0.261 0.200 Standard error of estimate 0.608 0.540 0.493 F 39.848 15.075*** 14.882*** IV 435 280 278 ,IThis table provides the statistical model behind figure 9.6. bThe abbreviation n.a. indicates not applicable. *p <.111 **p < .OS ***p < .01 TABLE B.20. Perot Activity Spillover into Major Party Presidential Nomination Campaigns: Pat Buchanan (1996) and John McCain (2000)' Pat Buchanan, 1996 John McCain, 2000 b b (standard errors (standard errors Independent Variable in parentheses) Mean in parentheses) Mean 1988 Republican campaign activity -0.007 0.872 -0.021 0.976 ((U114) (0.026) 1992 Republican general election activity -0.017 0.614 0.062 0.566 (CUl19) (0.039) 1992 Republican nomination activity 0.134*** 0.234 0.052 0.195 (O'()43) ((!.O88) Activity for Perot, 1992 0.016* 2.644 '0.032** 2.570 (O.OOS) (0.015) Party identification, 1992 -0.021 (Ul64 -0.014 0.092 (0.013) (0.024) Degree of preference for Democratic House 0.063*** -0.587 -0.173*** 2.845 candidate ((U)11) (0.029) Constant (1.074** 0.655*** (0.034) (0.102) Adjusted R' 0.127 0.142 Standard error of estimate 0.377 0.591 F 8.933 7.881 N 329 251 ,IThis table provides the statistical model behind figure 9.7. Most comparisons are from the 1992a wave, but comparisons involving campaign activism in the 1992 election use the 1992b wave as the basis of comparison and have a smaller base sample becanse of nonresponse in the 1992b wave that we used to create the campaign activism scale. *p < .10 **p < .OS ***p < .Ol ...