The American Voter Revisited

APPENDIX B: Replication of The American Voter

APPENDIX B Replication of The American V oter The฀American฀Voter฀Revisited attempts฀to฀replicate฀the฀analysis฀of ฀The American฀Voter. We฀have฀tried฀to฀do฀justice฀to฀that฀endeavor,฀but฀inevitably ฀obstacles฀arise.฀We฀describe฀some฀of฀them฀here,฀partly฀to฀document ฀our฀efforts฀but฀more฀importantly฀to฀provide฀a฀guide฀for฀future฀researchers ฀who฀att empt฀t o฀r eplicate฀ The฀A merican฀ Voter in฀another half-century. The฀replication฀issues฀vary฀by฀chapter฀and,฀as฀we฀spelled฀out฀in฀the preface,฀each฀of฀our฀chapters฀consciously฀parallels฀a฀chapter฀in฀the฀original .฀Chapter฀1 sets฀the฀stage,฀describing฀the฀prior฀course฀of฀voting฀research ,฀and฀the฀political฀context฀of฀the฀2000 and฀2004 presidential฀elections ฀(as฀opposed฀to฀those฀of฀1952 and฀1956).฀The฀role฀and฀activities฀of the฀National฀Election฀Studies, ฀bar ely฀begun฀in฀the฀ 1950s,฀ar e฀d ocumented .฀Chapter฀2 lays฀out฀a฀social-psy chological฀theory฀of฀the฀vote, based฀on฀the฀notion฀of ฀a฀funnel฀of ฀causality.฀For฀pedagogical฀purposes, the฀funnel฀is฀actually฀diag rammed,฀unlike฀in฀The฀American฀Voter itself. The฀case฀notes฀from฀nine฀voters฀surveyed฀are฀explicitly฀fictional ฀since฀it is฀not฀possible฀to฀quote฀directly฀from฀the฀interview฀protocols฀because฀of confidentiali y฀requirements. The฀real฀issues฀of฀scientific฀ eplication฀begin฀with฀the฀analytic฀chapters .฀Chapter฀3,฀the฀first฀o ฀this฀kind,฀posed฀a฀pr ofound฀challenge.฀The analysis฀of฀candidate฀and฀party฀perceptions฀was฀set฀in฀a฀specific฀his orical context—the฀depression,฀the฀New฀Deal,฀the฀war฀in฀K orea,฀a฀war฀her o฀as presidential฀candidate,฀and฀so฀on—that฀c ould฀not฀be฀r eplicated,฀strictly speaking.฀All฀we฀could฀do฀was฀t o฀pick฀elements฀of ฀the฀c ontemporary 435 ฀ historical฀setting—the฀Reagan฀revolution,฀the฀rise฀of฀moral฀issues,฀terrorism ,฀the฀war฀in฀Iraq,฀and฀so฀on—to฀conduct฀the฀kind฀of฀analysis฀of฀political ฀perceptions฀done฀in฀the฀or iginal,฀50 years฀ago.฀In฀addition,฀the฀reliance ฀on฀open-ended฀questions฀in฀this฀c hapter฀(the฀well-known฀battery of฀like-or-dislike฀items),฀used฀to฀probe฀perception฀of฀candidates฀and฀parties ,฀posed฀a฀technical฀problem฀of฀replication.฀In฀particular,฀the฀coding categories฀for฀those฀r esponses฀have฀proliferated฀enormously฀since฀the 1950s,฀requiring฀numerous฀decisions฀to฀create฀comparable฀categories. Chapter฀4 also฀requires฀a฀classification฀o ฀the฀open-ended฀like-anddislike ฀comments฀about฀the฀parties฀and฀candidates,฀into฀six฀partisan฀attitudes :฀attitudes฀toward฀the฀Republican฀and฀Democratic฀candidates,฀attitudes ฀t oward฀for eign฀and฀d omestic฀issues, ฀attitudes฀t oward฀social groups,฀and฀attitudes฀t oward฀the฀par ties฀as฀managers฀of ฀government. Unfortunately,฀the฀categorization฀used฀by฀the฀original฀authors฀cannot฀be located.฀The฀closest฀is฀a฀memo฀written฀by฀Art฀Wolfe฀of฀the฀Center฀for฀Political ฀Studies฀staff฀that฀shows฀the฀scheme฀they฀used฀for฀the฀ 1964 study, but฀it฀is฀based฀on฀a฀three-digit฀coding฀scheme฀rather฀than฀the฀four-digit coding฀scheme฀now฀used฀in฀the฀NES฀sur veys.฀The฀American฀Voter does not฀describe฀the฀categorization฀scheme฀in฀detail,฀nor฀d oes฀the฀earlier American฀Political฀Science฀Review article฀(Stokes,฀Campbell,฀and฀Miller 1958).฀The฀most฀useful฀delineation฀of฀the฀six฀categories฀is฀one฀that฀is฀provided ฀by฀Kagay฀and฀Caldeira฀(1980),฀who฀would฀have฀had฀the฀opportunity ฀to฀discuss฀the฀matt er฀with฀Donald฀St okes.฀In฀addition,฀the฀ 1952 codebook฀itself฀actually฀shows฀a฀derivation฀of฀the฀six฀components.฀With this฀background,฀we฀found฀that฀it฀was฀in฀fact฀easy฀t o฀categorize฀most฀of the฀“master฀code”฀categories฀used฀for฀these฀questions฀int o฀the฀six฀partisan ฀attitudes.฀Still,฀some฀of฀the฀specific฀ca egories฀fall฀so฀c ompletely฀in the฀intersection฀of฀different฀attitudes฀that฀ther e฀cannot฀be฀a฀ “correct” way฀of฀classifying฀them. Chapters฀3 and฀4 offer฀a฀contrast฀to฀chapter฀5,฀which฀was฀one฀of฀the simplest฀to฀replicate.฀Most฀of฀the฀measures฀to฀explain฀the฀decision฀t o turn฀out฀at฀the฀polls฀are฀still฀being฀posed฀in฀the฀election฀surveys,฀except for฀the฀civic฀duty฀scale฀(where฀we฀had฀to฀substitute฀a฀question฀about willingness฀to฀serve฀on฀a฀jur y).฀What฀is฀more,฀the฀summary฀indices฀for partisan฀intensity฀and฀psychological฀involvement฀predict฀turnout฀in฀the replication฀just฀about฀as฀well฀as฀they฀did฀in฀the฀original฀analysis. The฀largest฀replication฀problem฀in฀chapter฀6 involves฀table฀6.3,฀which compares฀the฀observed฀and฀expected฀numbers฀of฀respondents฀with฀consistent ฀partisan฀attitudes,฀with฀controls฀on฀strength฀of฀partisanship.฀It 436 ★ appendix...