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CHAPTER 5: Voting Turnout
- University of Michigan Press
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CHAPTER 5 Voting T urnout Whencitizenscastavoteinanelectiontheydoalotmorethanponder theprosandconsoftherivalcandidates.Theymustalsoresolvethat theelectionisimportantenoughtotraveltothepollingstationorsend intheirballotbymail.Preferenceforaparticularcandidatecanmatter onlyifitisexpressedonaballot,andthedecisionbysomecitizensto stayhomeonElectionDaymaymatterasmuchfortheoutcomeofan electionasthechoicesmadebythosewhoturnout.Changesinturn out greatlyaffectthefor tunesofcandidatesandparties.Thisisespecially noteworthyfortur ningpointsin Americanelectoralhistory, whicharemarkedbysharpfluctuationsinturnout.Eveninthe 2004 election,whichconfirmedasittingpr esidentinoffic e,tur noutincreased morethandidthewinner’sshareofthevote,incomparisonto theelectionfouryearsearlier. Asinanydemocracy,participationofthecitizenryinelectionsisvalued in Americansociety,leadingt oexhortationsduringtheelection campaigntogooutandmakeyourvotecount.Thedemocraticidealis synonymouswithuniversalparticipation.Itlooksbadforademocratic countryifmanyofitspeoplestayhomeonElectionDay.Itsuggeststhat peoplearedisenchantedwiththedemocraticprocessandseenopointin participating.Indeed,muchofthepopulardiscussionofturnouthasto dowithwhysoman yfailt ovote.Turnoutin Americanelectionsis unimpressiveincomparisontoothercountries;theUnitedStatesranks closertothebottomthanthetop(Franklin1996;Powell1986).Andthe trendinAmericanelectionsis,ifanything,notencouraging.Evenbig82 VotingTurnout ★ 83 draweventslikepresidentialelectionsbringoutnomorethantwoof everythreecitizenstothepolls.Foralongtime,observersblamedburdensome registrationrequirementsforthelowturnout,butthislineof reasoningislesspersuasivenowthatregistrationprocedureshavebecome mucheasier.AgreatmanyAmericanadultsstillfailtoensurethat theyareeligibletovoteonElectionDay. Identifyingthemotivesfornonvotingisimportantincomingtogrips withelectoralparticipation.Atthesametime,wemissthebiggerpicture ifwedealonlywithfailure tovote.WhatmayberemarkableaboutAmerican presidentialelectionsisthefactthatmillionsmak etheefforttoshow upatthepollsandcasttheirvote(ordosobyabsenteeballot).Whatare themotivationsthatleadthesepeo pletodoso?Anddoeslackofthese motivationskeepothersfromvoting?Whatbestdistinguishesthev oter fromthenonvoter?Asouranalysiswillshow,itisdifficult oexplainwhy certainindividualsturnoutwhoar enot “expected”to(the “deviant voter”)—muchharderthanexplainingwhysomeonefailstovotewhois expectedto(the“deviantnonvoter”). Aswiththechoicebetweencandidates,thedecisiont ovoteorstay homederivesinthemostimmediat esensefrompsychologicalforces. Butnonpsychologicalfactorsplayamor esignificant oleintur nout thantheydoforcandidatechoice.Therearebarrierstoturnoutthatdo notimpedethec hoiceamongcandidat es.Inthisc hapterwepresent evidenceformotivationalforcesthataffectthelikelihoodanindividual willvote.Atthesametime,wearemindfulthatthesecausesofturnout, liketheattitudinalc omponentsof candidatechoice,areintervening variablesinamor eextendedprocessinwhic haw idearrayofante cedent factorsplayapart.Turnout,likecandidatechoice,issimplythe endpointofalongandw idecausalfunnelwheremotivationalforces occupytheplacemostproximatetothedecisionitself. types of political engagement WhilemanyAmericansturnoutt ovoteinpr esidentialelections,for mostthisistheironlypar ticipationinpolitics.Fewprofesstoengagein anyoneofseveralmoretaxingpoliticalactivities,astable5.1 makesclear. Ifitisdist ressingthatabaremajorityoftheelectorateshowsupatthe pollsinourpresidentialelections,thefactthatin2000 onlyonepersonin 10 engagedinthemostcommontypeofactinthetable—showingone’s politicalcolors—mustbedownrightdepressing.Andthatwasar ather [18.191...