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CHAPTER 5 Voting T urnout When฀citizens฀cast฀a฀vote฀in฀an฀election฀they฀do฀a฀lot฀more฀than฀ponder the฀pros฀and฀cons฀of฀the฀rival฀candidates.฀They฀must฀also฀resolve฀that the฀election฀is฀important฀enough฀to฀travel฀to฀the฀polling฀station฀or฀send in฀their฀ballot฀by฀mail.฀Preference฀for฀a฀particular฀candidate฀can฀matter only฀if฀it฀is฀expressed฀on฀a฀ballot,฀and฀the฀decision฀by฀some฀citizens฀to stay฀home฀on฀Election฀Day฀may฀matter฀as฀much฀for฀the฀outcome฀of฀an election฀as฀the฀choices฀made฀by฀those฀who฀turn฀out.฀Changes฀in฀turn฀ out ฀greatly฀affect฀the฀for tunes฀of฀candidates฀and฀parties.฀This฀is฀especially ฀noteworthy฀for฀tur ning฀points฀in฀ American฀electoral฀history, which฀are฀marked฀by฀sharp฀fluctuations฀in฀turnout.฀Even฀in฀the฀ 2004 election,฀which฀confirmed฀a฀sitting฀pr esident฀in฀offic e,฀tur nout฀increased ฀more฀than฀did฀the฀winner’s฀share฀of฀the฀vote,฀in฀comparison฀to the฀election฀four฀years฀earlier. As฀in฀any฀democracy,฀participation฀of฀the฀citizenry฀in฀elections฀is฀valued ฀in฀ American฀society,฀leading฀t o฀exhortations฀during฀the฀election campaign฀to฀go฀out฀and฀make฀your฀vote฀count.฀The฀democratic฀ideal฀is synonymous฀with฀universal฀participation.฀It฀looks฀bad฀for฀a฀democratic country฀if฀many฀of฀its฀people฀stay฀home฀on฀Election฀Day.฀It฀suggests฀that people฀are฀disenchanted฀with฀the฀democratic฀process฀and฀see฀no฀point฀in participating.฀Indeed,฀much฀of฀the฀popular฀discussion฀of฀turnout฀has฀to do฀with฀why฀so฀man y฀fail฀t o฀vote.฀Turnout฀in฀ American฀elections฀is unimpressive฀in฀comparison฀to฀other฀countries;฀the฀United฀States฀ranks closer฀to฀the฀bottom฀than฀the฀top฀(Franklin฀1996;฀Powell฀1986).฀And฀the trend฀in฀American฀elections฀is,฀if฀anything,฀not฀encouraging.฀Even฀big82 Voting฀Turnout ★ 83 draw฀events฀like฀presidential฀elections฀bring฀out฀no฀more฀than฀two฀of every฀three฀citizens฀to฀the฀polls.฀For฀a฀long฀time,฀observers฀blamed฀burdensome ฀registration฀requirements฀for฀the฀low฀turnout,฀but฀this฀line฀of reasoning฀is฀less฀persuasive฀now฀that฀registration฀procedures฀have฀become ฀much฀easier.฀A฀great฀many฀American฀adults฀still฀fail฀to฀ensure฀that they฀are฀eligible฀to฀vote฀on฀Election฀Day. Identifying฀the฀motives฀for฀nonvoting฀is฀important฀in฀coming฀to฀grips with฀electoral฀participation.฀At฀the฀same฀time,฀we฀miss฀the฀bigger฀picture if฀we฀deal฀only฀with฀failure to฀vote.฀What฀may฀be฀remarkable฀about฀American ฀presidential฀elections฀is฀the฀fact฀that฀millions฀mak e฀the฀effort฀to฀show up฀at฀the฀polls฀and฀cast฀their฀vote฀(or฀do฀so฀by฀absentee฀ballot).฀What฀are the฀motivations฀that฀lead฀these฀peo ple฀to฀do฀so?฀And฀does฀lack฀of฀these motivations฀keep฀others฀from฀voting?฀What฀best฀distinguishes฀the฀v oter from฀the฀nonvoter?฀As฀our฀analysis฀will฀show,฀it฀is฀difficult฀ o฀explain฀why certain฀individuals฀turn฀out฀who฀ar e฀not฀ “expected”฀to฀(the฀ “deviant voter”)—much฀harder฀than฀explaining฀why฀someone฀fails฀to฀vote฀who฀is expected฀to฀(the฀“deviant฀nonvoter”). As฀with฀the฀choice฀between฀candidates,฀the฀decision฀t o฀vote฀or฀stay home฀derives฀in฀the฀most฀immediat e฀sense฀from฀psychological฀forces. But฀nonpsychological฀factors฀play฀a฀mor e฀significant฀ ole฀in฀tur nout than฀they฀do฀for฀candidate฀choice.฀There฀are฀barriers฀to฀turnout฀that฀do not฀impede฀the฀c hoice฀among฀candidat es.฀In฀this฀c hapter฀we฀present ฀ evidence฀for฀motivational฀forces฀that฀affect฀the฀likelihood฀an฀individual will฀vote.฀At฀the฀same฀time,฀we฀are฀mindful฀that฀these฀causes฀of฀turnout, like฀the฀attitudinal฀c omponents฀of ฀candidate฀choice,฀are฀intervening variables฀in฀a฀mor e฀extended฀process฀in฀whic h฀a฀w ide฀array฀of฀ante฀ cedent ฀factors฀play฀a฀part.฀Turnout,฀like฀candidate฀choice,฀is฀simply฀the end฀point฀of฀a฀long฀and฀w ide฀causal฀funnel฀where฀motivational฀forces occupy฀the฀place฀most฀proximate฀to฀the฀decision฀itself. types of political engagement While฀many฀Americans฀turn฀out฀t o฀vote฀in฀pr esidential฀elections,฀for most฀this฀is฀their฀only฀par ticipation฀in฀politics.฀Few฀profess฀to฀engage฀in any฀one฀of฀several฀more฀taxing฀political฀activities,฀as฀table฀5.1 makes฀clear. If฀it฀is฀dist ressing฀that฀a฀bare฀majority฀of฀the฀electorate฀shows฀up฀at฀the polls฀in฀our฀presidential฀elections,฀the฀fact฀that฀in฀2000 only฀one฀person฀in 10 engaged฀in฀the฀most฀common฀type฀of฀act฀in฀the฀table—showing฀one’s political฀colors—must฀be฀downright฀depressing.฀And฀that฀was฀a฀r ather [18.191...

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