The American Voter Revisited

CHAPTER 4: Partisan Choice

60 CHAPTER 4 Partisan Choice The฀attitudes฀and฀r eactions฀that฀c onstitute฀public฀per ceptions฀of฀the parties฀and฀candidates฀are฀important฀because฀of฀their฀effect฀on฀elections and฀voting.฀These฀attitudes฀affect฀the฀public’s฀choice฀in฀presidential฀elections .฀The฀images฀of ฀parties฀and฀their฀candidat es฀fluctua e฀with฀daily news฀events,฀but฀the฀images฀prevalent฀on฀Election฀Day฀will฀inevitably฀affect ฀the฀electoral฀outcome. The฀previous฀chapter฀examined฀the฀public’s images฀of฀the฀parties and฀candidates,฀but฀ individual votes฀are฀determined฀by฀individuals’ own฀perceptions.฀Therefore,฀this฀chapter฀will฀focus฀on฀individual฀voters ฀and฀the฀effects฀of ฀images฀of฀parties฀and฀candidates฀on฀the฀votes฀of individuals.฀We฀view฀an฀individual’s฀images฀of฀these฀political฀objects฀as a฀system฀of฀“partisan฀attitudes,”฀and฀we฀consider฀how฀this฀system฀affects ฀voting. The฀scholarly฀literature฀understates฀the฀role฀that฀perceptions฀of฀the parties฀and฀candidates฀play฀in฀determining฀voting.฀The฀literature฀instead ฀assumes฀that฀long-t erm฀party฀ties฀and฀demog raphics฀determine these฀perceptions,฀with฀images฀of฀party฀and฀candidate฀being฀no฀mor e than฀rationalizations฀that฀people฀give฀for฀their฀votes.฀Even฀if฀that฀assumption ฀were฀reasonable,฀we฀would฀still฀want฀to฀map฀the฀individual’s perception฀of฀the฀parties฀and฀candidates.฀After฀all,฀such฀a฀map฀w ould give฀us฀greater฀understanding฀of฀how฀party฀ties฀and฀demographics฀such as฀race,฀religion,฀and฀social-ec onomic฀status฀affect฀peo ple’s฀views฀of politics. In฀fact,฀perceptions฀of฀the฀parties฀and฀candidates฀are฀not฀totally฀de- 1.฀For฀example,฀there฀was฀not฀a฀g reater฀proportion฀of฀men฀in฀ 2000 than฀in฀ 1996,฀but฀a greater฀proportion฀of฀men฀voted฀Republican฀in฀2000 than฀four฀years฀earlier.฀The฀same฀was also฀true฀for฀women,฀so฀gender฀does฀not฀explain฀the฀voting฀difference฀between฀these฀two฀elections —it฀is฀฀instead฀that฀both฀men฀and฀w omen฀evaluated฀contemporary฀political฀objects฀in฀a more฀pro-Republican฀manner฀in฀2000 than฀they฀did฀in฀1996. termined฀by฀long-term฀party฀ties฀and฀demog raphics,฀since฀these฀perceptions ฀can฀and฀do฀change฀with฀political฀events฀in฀the฀real฀world.฀Indeed ,฀some฀events฀move฀public฀opinion฀among฀all฀partisan฀groups฀and all฀demographic฀groups,฀though฀more฀in฀some฀g roups฀than฀others.฀As will฀be฀stressed฀in฀later฀chapters,฀individuals’฀ties฀to฀a฀party฀are฀often stable฀over฀time,฀as,฀obviously,฀are฀social฀demographics฀such฀as฀race฀and gender.฀For฀that฀reason,฀fluctuations฀in฀ea h฀party’s฀proportion฀of฀the vote฀in฀different฀elections฀can฀only฀be฀accounted฀for฀by฀changes฀in฀partisan ฀attitudes฀o ver฀time.฀Using฀sur vey฀data฀for฀the฀ 1952–64 period, Stokes฀(1966a)฀has฀shown฀that฀the฀v ote฀shift฀from฀the฀Eisenhower฀Republican ฀landslide฀in฀1956 to฀the฀Johnson฀Democratic฀landslide฀in฀1964 can฀only฀be฀explained฀by฀changes฀in฀the฀partisan฀attitudes฀of฀individual voters. A฀more฀recent฀example฀is฀provided฀by฀the฀changes฀in฀the฀par tisan vote฀division฀between฀1996 and฀2000.฀The฀electorate฀changed฀minimally over฀those฀four฀years฀in฀terms฀of฀gender,฀race,฀ethnicity,฀religion,฀education ,฀and฀other฀demog raphic฀characteristics,฀so฀the฀larger฀R epublican vote฀in฀2000 cannot฀be฀explained฀by฀more฀people฀being฀in฀Republicanleaning ฀social฀groups.฀Instead,฀nearly฀all฀social฀g roups฀became฀more฀Republican ฀in฀their฀party฀identification฀in 2000 (Stanley฀and฀Niemi฀2004). Furthermore,฀if฀we฀look฀at฀self-proclaimed฀partisanship฀(to฀be฀discussed at฀greater฀length฀in฀c hapter฀6),฀people฀in฀every฀category฀of฀partisanship voted฀more฀Republican฀in฀2000 than฀in฀1996.฀Thus,฀neither฀long-term฀social ฀groupings฀nor฀partisanship฀can฀explain฀the฀changes฀over฀this฀period. Instead,฀the฀change฀must฀be฀due฀to฀differences฀in฀evaluation฀of฀political objects฀between฀2000 and฀1996.1 Specificall ,฀the฀Republican฀candidate฀in 2000 was฀viewed฀more฀positively฀than฀in฀1996,฀and฀the฀Democratic฀candidate ฀was฀viewed฀more฀negatively.฀We฀explain฀this฀change฀through฀different ฀political฀objects—the฀nomination฀of฀George฀W.฀Bush฀instead฀of฀Bob Dole฀by฀the฀Republicans฀and฀the฀attempt฀by฀Al฀Gore฀to฀succeed฀Bill฀Clinton ฀for฀the฀Democr ats.฀Attitudes฀toward฀these฀candidates,฀and฀also฀toward ฀issues,฀were฀affected฀by฀party฀ties฀and฀demographics,฀but฀a฀change in฀the฀objects—and฀subsequent฀c hange฀in฀par ty฀images—explains฀the shift฀in฀the฀vote฀over฀this฀four-year฀period. Partisan฀Choice ★ 61 2.฀The฀full฀classification฀s heme฀is฀available฀from฀the฀authors. a social-psychological model of voting behavior Our฀basic฀model...