The American Voter Revisited

CHAPTER 3: Perceptions of the Parties and Candidates

31 CHAPTER 3 Perceptions of the Parties and Candidates Voters฀cast฀their฀ballots฀in฀secr et฀but฀not฀in฀the฀dar k.฀To฀understand฀a voter’s฀choice,฀we฀must฀come฀to฀grips฀with฀the฀way฀a฀voter฀sees฀the฀elements ฀that฀enter฀into฀the฀decision.฀Foremost฀among฀them฀are฀the฀candidates ฀on฀the฀ballot, ฀the฀par ties฀the y฀represent,฀and฀the฀issues฀on which฀the฀par ties฀and฀candidat es฀may฀take฀different฀positions.฀Like Plato’s฀cave-dwellers,฀some฀voters฀glimpse฀only฀flickering฀shadows฀of these฀objects,฀especially฀if ฀they฀are฀complicated฀issues฀of ฀policy.฀Regardless ฀of฀how฀distorted฀these฀perceptions฀may฀be,฀the฀decision฀to฀cast a฀certain฀vote—or฀not฀to฀vote฀at฀all—makes฀sense฀only฀in฀terms฀of฀the subjective฀imprint฀of฀the฀political฀w orld฀in฀the฀citiz en’s฀mind.฀We฀believe ฀that฀electoral฀choice฀is฀guided฀by฀a฀simple฀premise:฀Whatever฀does not฀register฀in฀a฀v oter’s฀mind฀cannot฀mak e฀a฀difference฀in฀the฀v oter’s behavior. If฀a฀v oter’s฀electoral฀choice฀is฀guided฀b y฀a฀“cognitive฀map,”฀to฀use Hyman’s฀famous฀phrase,฀this฀is฀not฀an฀objective฀drawing฀of฀the฀political world.฀In฀fact,฀it฀is฀an฀affecti vely฀colored฀map.฀Voters฀are฀guided฀not฀b y accurate฀perceptions฀of฀candidates฀(accurate฀in฀some฀ag reed-on฀sense), but฀by฀evaluations of฀the฀candidates฀in฀positive฀or฀negative฀terms.฀One citizen’s฀evaluation฀may฀sharply฀differ฀from฀another’s.฀What฀one฀voter sees฀as฀decisiveness฀in฀a฀candidate,฀another฀voter฀sees฀as฀rashness.฀Each฀of these฀subjective฀assessments฀is฀real฀to฀the฀person฀who฀makes฀it.฀Of฀critical ฀importance฀for฀behavior,฀the฀positively฀toned฀perception฀is฀likely฀to motivate฀a฀vote฀for฀the฀candidate฀so฀perceived,฀while฀the฀negatively฀toned perception฀does฀so฀for฀the฀o pponent.฀Moreover,฀a฀shift฀of ฀the฀affective balance฀of฀such฀perceptions฀over฀time฀helps฀e xplain฀the฀d ynamics฀of electoral฀change. the influence of historical reality Despite฀the฀subjectivity฀of฀assessments,฀individuals฀do฀not฀have฀unlimited ฀leeway฀to฀construct฀their฀own฀image฀of฀the฀political฀world.฀Some facts฀ar e฀difficult฀ o฀int erpret฀in฀differ ent฀ways.฀P rofound฀hist orical events฀such฀as฀ec onomic฀depressions,฀wars,฀domestic฀upheavals,฀and major฀scandals฀are฀bound฀to฀leave฀similar฀impressions฀in฀the฀gener al public.฀As฀the฀salient฀facts฀c hange,฀therefore,฀general฀perceptions฀move along฀with฀them.฀For฀this฀reason,฀one฀cannot฀account฀for฀common฀images ฀of฀parties฀and฀their฀candidates฀without฀recognizing฀the฀influen e฀of the฀fl w฀of฀historical฀reality. This฀chapter฀focuses฀on฀the฀impact฀of ฀changes฀in฀the฀political฀en vironment ฀on฀perceptions฀of฀parties฀and฀candidates.฀In฀doing฀so฀we฀should not฀lose฀sight฀of฀the฀distinction฀betw een฀image฀and฀r eality.฀The฀two฀are not฀the฀same.฀The฀translation฀from฀one฀to฀the฀other฀is฀not฀aut omatic฀or identical฀for฀all฀members฀of ฀the฀mass฀public.฀It฀is฀worth฀reminding฀ourselves ฀that฀political฀reality฀can฀influen e฀voters฀at฀the฀polls฀only฀by฀getting into฀their฀mind฀and฀under฀their฀skin. ฀Thus,฀we฀have฀to฀pay฀attention฀to psychological฀processes฀of฀cognition฀and฀affect. Given฀the฀importance฀of฀perceptions฀in฀motivating฀behavior,฀it฀is imperative฀to฀learn฀how฀changes฀in฀the฀r eal฀world฀of฀politics฀alter฀the voters’฀cognitive฀map฀of฀that฀world.฀This฀insight฀will฀lead฀us฀a฀long฀way toward฀an฀understanding฀of฀the฀changing฀fortunes฀of฀the฀political฀parties ฀in฀national฀elections.฀To฀gauge฀the฀images฀of฀candidates฀and฀parties held฀by฀the฀American฀electorate,฀we฀turn฀to฀data฀that฀ha ve฀been฀collected ฀by฀asking฀respondents฀what฀they฀like฀or฀dislike฀about฀those฀individuals ฀and฀institutions. Before฀exploring฀responses฀to฀those฀questions, ฀let฀us฀not e฀several limitations฀of฀this฀analysis.฀Given฀our฀focus฀on฀the฀two฀most฀recent฀presidential ฀elections,฀we฀are฀considering฀only฀a฀short฀time฀horizon.฀Observations ฀from฀two฀national฀sur veys฀spanning฀a฀four -year฀interval฀may make฀a฀strong฀case฀for฀the฀effect฀of ฀historical฀reality฀on฀images,฀but฀will fall฀short฀of฀definit ve฀proof.฀In฀particular,฀historical฀events฀may฀have฀determined ฀popular฀images฀long฀before฀the฀period฀in฀which฀our฀surveys asked฀about฀perceptions.฀It฀remains฀a฀matter฀of฀inference฀to฀trace฀the imprint฀of ฀past฀e vents฀in฀the฀c ontent฀and฀t enor฀of ฀images฀r ecorded 32 ★ the american voter revisited 1.฀For฀this฀purpose,฀a฀standard...