All International Politics Is Local: The Diffusion of Conflict, Integration, and Democratization

2. A Regional Approach to Conflict, Integration, and Democratization

CHAPTER 2 A Regional Approach to Conflict, Integration, and Democratization In this chapter, I seek to explain how some regional clusters in the international system develop interactions in which the use of violent conflict seems inconceivable while states in other parts of the system seem unable to escape from protracted conflict and perpetual insecurity. Figure 2.1 presents an overview of my argument. This heuristic device depicts the potential linkages between three conceptual factors. The principal explanans is variation in regional conflict and peace, indicated on the left of the figure. This can be observed in terms of both individual outbreaks of conflict and more enduring patterns of conflict and insecurity . I leave the issue of how to measure regional conflict aside until chapter 3. I first relate differences in conflict and cooperation between states to two broader factors, which I label Deutschian integration theory and democratic peace. These two theoretical components are found on the righthand side of figure 2.1. Briefly summarized, Deutschian integration theory holds that certain forms of integration can establish relations between states in which the use of force becomes inconceivable. The second holds that properties of democratic institutions can constrain the use of force. Although neither of these schools of thought can be characterized as "new" theories of international relations, my approach differs from previous research by relating them to regional conflict and cooperation. In order to understand how regional complexes evolve over time, we need to establish the ways in which Deutschian integration and democratic peace are related. I evaluate to what extent the two theories seem compatible or whether each theory yields substantive implications inadmissible under the other. Differences in regional conflict and cooperation may feed back to integration and domestic political institutions. The relationship between democratic institutions and conflict may also stem from a more general peace between similar or compatible states. I then explore the international context of democracy and democratization. 31 32 All International Politics Is Local Social requisites "', '''4 / Regional contiict/peace Democracyl political regime Deutschian integration Fig. 2.1. A regional conflict, integration, and democratization nexus Whereas most theories relate the emergence of democratic institutions to social requisites or processes within each individual state, factors and actors outside national borders may also change a state's prospects for democracy and political transitions may diffuse among countries. Furthermore , regional conflict and peace may influence a country's prospects for democracy. Finally, we need to separate linkages between levels of conflict, integration, and political institutions at a single point in time from the dynamics of change. Accordingly, I distinguish between the effects of stable political institutions and the dynamic effects of transitions and examine how the relationship between transitions and violent conflict is mediated by a state's regional context. Deutschian Integration Theory The initial work by Karl W. Deutsch on political community outlined a research program with the explicit aim of identifying "the conditions under which stable, peaceful relations among nation states are likely" (1954: 33). Deutsch and his associates (1957: 5) coined the term security communities to denote groups of countries "in which there is real assurance that the members of that community will not fight each other physically but settle their dispute in some other way." Whereas much research on world politics adopts as a working assumption that relations A Regional Approach to Conflict, Integration, and Democratization 33 between states are inherently conflictual, Deutsch et al. described historical examples of communities of states that do not see their interests as contradictory and display forms of compatibility that go well beyond mobilization against common enemies. Deutsch et al. (1957) tried to clarify the minimum requirements for peaceful political community by comparing ten historical cases from Western Europe and North America. Security communities were deemed to emerge through two distinct types of integrative processes. First, political community could come about through what Deutsch (1954) labeled amalgamation or "the formal merger of two or more previously independent units into a larger unit." Second, security communities can be achieved through pluralistic integration, wherein political centers or decisionmaking units retain their formal sovereignty or independence. Contrary to the claims of both world federalists and realists, Deutsch and his associates contend that overcoming anarchy does not require federation or formal supranational institutions but can be fostered through informal types of integration between states that bolster expectations about peaceful change and nondisruptive interaction. In fact, efforts to amalgamate through formal integration...