The U.S. Army Stability Operations Field Manual: U.S. Army Field Manual No. 3-07

Appendix D: Interagency Conflict Assessment Overview

6 October 2008 FM 3-07 D-1 Appendix D Interagency Conflict Assessment Overview BACKGROUND D-1. Successful stability operations are predicated on identifying and reducing the causes of instability and reestablishing or building community and state capacity to diminish, manage, or prevent them from recurring in the future. The conflict assessment frameworks discussed in this appendix were developed collaboratively by the departments and agencies of the United States Government (USG) to identify the causes of instability , develop activities to diminish or mitigate them, and evaluate the effectiveness of the activities in fostering stability. This appendix presents these assessment frameworks for information purposes only. Army forces use doctrinal assessment tools to inform understanding, aid in planning, and shape execution. These frameworks will inform, but not replace, those doctrinal tools. INTERAGENCY CONFLICT ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK D-2. Addressing the causes and consequences of weak and failed states has become an urgent priority for the USG. Conflict both contributes to and results from state fragility. To effectively prevent or resolve violent conflict, the USG needs tools and approaches that enable coordination of U.S. diplomatic, development and military efforts in support of local institutions and actors seeking to resolve their disputes peacefully. D-3. A first step toward a more effective and coordinated response to help states prevent, mitigate, and recover from violent conflict is the development of shared understanding among USG agencies about the sources of violent conflict or civil strife. Achieving this shared understanding of the dynamics of a particular crisis requires both a joint interagency process for completing the assessment and a common conceptual framework to guide the collection and analysis of information. The interagency conflict assessment framework (ICAF) is a tool that enables an interagency team to assess conflict situations systemically and collabora- Appendix D D-2 FM 3-07 6 October 2008 tively; it supports USG interagency planning for conflict prevention, mitigation , and stabilization. PURPOSE D-4. The ICAF is intended to develop a commonly held understanding across relevant USG departments and agencies of the dynamics driving and mitigating violent conflict in a country. This understanding informs national policy and planning decisions. The ICAF may also include steps to establish a strategic baseline against which USG engagement can be evaluated. It is a process and a tool available for use by any USG agency to supplement interagency or military planning. D-5. The principles of interagency conflict assessment outline the key concepts, processes, and products essential to completing an interagency assessment. The USG departments and agencies develop supplementary documents to provide a fuller treatment of the analytical framework, appropriate tools and data collection procedures, and set the composition and functions of an interagency conflict assessment team. D-6. The ICAF draws on existing conflict assessment procedures used by USG departments and agencies as well as with some international and nongovernmental organizations. It is not intended to duplicate or replace existing independent analytical processes, such as those conducted within the intelligence community. Rather, the ICAF builds upon those and other analytical efforts to provide a common framework. It allows USG departments and agencies to leverage and share the knowledge gained from their own assessments and establish a common interagency perspective . D-7. The ICAF is distinct from other forecasting tools that identify countries at risk of instability or collapse and that describe conditions leading to outbreaks of instability or violent conflict. The ICAF builds on this forecasting. It helps an interagency team to understand why such conditions may exist and how to best engage to transform them. To do so, the ICAF draws on social science expertise to describe a process that an interagency team uses to identify societal and situational dynamics shown to increase or decrease potential violent conflict. In addition, the ICAF provides a shared, strategic perspective of the conflict against which future progress can be measured. (See chapter 1 for a discussion of conflict transformation in stability operations.) Interagency Conflict Assessment Overview 6 October 2008 FM 3-07 D-3 APPLYING THE INTERAGENCY CONFLICT ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK D-8. The ICAF is the first step in any interagency planning process, informing and clarifying USG goals. It also provides information concerning the design and adjustment of activities, implementation, or revision of programs, and resource allocation. Within the interagency planning process , the ICAF determines who initiates and participates in the assessment, the time and place for the assessment, the type and application of products needed, and the...