Value Change in Global Perspective

3. Short-Term Value Change in Western Europe

CHAPTER 3 Short-Term Value Change in Western Europe Inglehart's theory predicts both short- and long-term changes in values. He advances two hypotheses that account for variation in Materialist/Postmaterialist values: (1) a scarcity hypothesis stating that "an individual's priorities reflect one's socioeconomic environment" and (2) a "socialization" hypothesis that postulates "to a large extent, one's basic values reflect the conditions that prevailed during one's preadult years" (Inglehart 1985, 103). As Inglehart (1985, 103) writes, "The scarcity hypothesis implies short-term changes, or period effects: periods of prosperity lead to increased postmaterialism, and periods of scarcity lead to materialism. The socialization hypothesis implies that long-term cohort effects also exist." As we saw in chapter 2, short-term changes in value priorities clearly do occur. In their critique of Inglehart's thesis, Harold D. Clarke and Nitish Dutt argue that although "Inglehart advances a scarcity hypothesis, which acknowledges the presence of period effects, he argues that these effects are minor" (1991, 905). In fact, Inglehart never argues that short-term period effects are minor. He argues that they can be either large or small, depending upon social, economic, and political conditions. During the traumatic recessions of the mid-1970s and early 1980s, these effects were substantial. Inglehart (1985) concludes that between 1970 and 1982 period effects and cohort effects were of roughly the same magnitude, with period effects actually outweighing cohort effects. Short-Term and Long-Term Value Change On the surface, it may seem plausible to argue that stable cohort differences cannot be present if responses fluctuate with current economic circumstances. However, a closer examination reveals that robust and enduring cohort differences can be accompanied by substantial short-term period effects. To illustrate this point, let us compare figure 3-1 and 3-2. Figure 3-1 depicts a hypothetical cohort analysis conducted between 1970 and 1990 in which cohort effects alone are present: the younger birth cohorts are less Materialist than older ones, and all cohorts maintain their values with no short-term fluctuations. By 1990, the two oldest cohorts have largely disappeared, and 25 26 Value Change in Global Perspective 1966·75 ........ _-----1956 ·65 ......._----_............_---1946 ·55 .... ...---------------------------------, .!! as .1: .!! ca E .... U) o Q. 1936·45 ---------------------------------1926 - 35 •.•...•••.....................................•....•......•.......••.................•....................... ~~~~._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._._.1990 1985 1976 1978 1980 1982 Year Fig. 3-1. Hypothetical cohort analysis with cohort effects only. (Based on Inglehart 1990, fig. 2-2, 80.) -----------_ . 1906 -15 .... .!! as 1866 ·1905 "t: .!! ca :E 1970 1973 they have been replaced by two younger cohorts. There is a net shift from Materialist to Postmaterialist values, and this shift results solely from intergenerational population replacement. Although this model is simple and parsimonious, it is highly implausible . It assumes that by the time individuals reach adulthood, they attain a robotlike rigidity and no longer respond to current economic and social conditions . Not surprisingly, although many analysts have tracked birth cohorts across time, we know of no empirical example concerning any attitudinal variable that fits this simple model. Figure 3-2 depicts another hypothetical cohort analysis. In this case, period effects are superimposed on stable birth cohort differences. Although there are substantial fluctuations in response to short-term forces, the cohort differences are exactly as large and enduring as those found in figure 3-1. Consequently, population replacement produces exactly the same amount of long-term value change as we find with figure 3-1. That long-term change can occur despite short-term variation has been demonstrated repeatedly in the literature on cohort analysis, but this point is still often misunderstood. Such a misunderstanding leads Clarke and Dutt to claim to have refuted Inglehart's theory by demonstrating that the empirical data do not fit the model presented in figure 3-1. In fact, stable cohort differences , producing long-term intergenerational changes, are perfectly compatible with substantial short-term variation. Short-Term Value Change in Western Europe 27 1966·75 ........ _------ • ~19-56-.-65-----1946 ·55 • ' - / , . - _ 1936·45 /..... .........." - / ' . / -------, /', ,--------1926 ·35 , / .......' / / ......................... , / .•. " / . .... ',/ ..... ' / ...• 1!~!.:.~!...._._.~ ••••• •••• /./ '., •••••• ••••• ~.-._._._._._._.- ., ., •.•..•.. /.' 1906 ·15 ., ~'_ -.'. ~. / . .. . . _._._.~ .,/., ' ..' 1866·1905 , - . . , ...., / ~~ ,.",. .... , . , , ...... ... .!! ii .~ .! as :E L..-.--I. .L.- ......_ _..a..---a.._.Lo-......_ ....._ _--"" __ !! "iii .~ .! as E ... en o D. 1990 1985 1982 1976 1973 1978 1980 Year Fig...