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chapter 4 The Impact of “How They See Us” Seven Mini–Case Studies Because neither democracies nor authoritarian countries conduct foreign policy by plebiscite, the impact of public opinion—much less opinions about a single country, even one as important as the United States—cannot be assumed. The survey data described in chapters 2 and 3 provide a fairly compelling picture of increasingly critical views about the United States and its foreign policies among many publics abroad, including among some of this country ’s oldest allies, but even a cursory examination of anecdotal evidence reveals that the correlation between public opinion and important policy decisions falls far short of 1. As revealed earlier in this book, Prime Minister Tony Blair’s decision to follow the United States into Iraq was taken in the face of very limited public enthusiasm for the undertaking. Although Spanish and Italian contributions to the “coalition of the willing” involved smaller military contingents , decisions by the governments in Madrid and Rome clearly ›ew in the face of growing public criticism of the United States and, especially, of Washington ’s policy on the Iraq issue. In other cases the anecdotal evidence suggests that public views of the United States and its foreign policies may indeed have had policy consequences . As noted earlier, during his very dif‹cult reelection campaign in 2002, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder publicly pledged that German armed forces, which had been sent to Afghanistan in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks to remove the Taliban regime and to hunt down al Qaeda leaders, would not under any circumstances be deployed to Iraq. That pledge, which mirrored the strongly held views of the German public, appears to have been suf‹cient to fuel a close electoral victory for Schroeder. 88 In an effort to go beyond such anecdotal evidence, this chapter seeks to shed more light on how public views of the United States may have entered into the policy process in seven countries with whichWashington traditionally has had cordial relations: Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico, Canada, Australia, Morocco, and South Korea .Indeed,this country has alliance and other ties with Turkey (NATO),Australia (ANZUS pact), South Korea (bilateral security pact), Canada (NATO and NAFTA), and Mexico (Rio Pact, NAFTA). Even without formal alliance ties, U.S. relations with Indonesia and Morocco have generally been amicable. There is more to be learned about the sources and impact of anti-American opinions by focusing on countries where such sentiments are not necessarily part of a long tradition of opposition to the United States, its people, its institutions , and its policies. The list thus excludes traditional adversaries whose publics have had to endure long periods of of‹cial anti-American propaganda and where, in any case, public opinion polling opportunities are very limited (North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Libya, Syria); some important countries for which there are rather limited data on public views of the United States (China, Japan, Egypt); and three others that have taken strong positions opposing American policies in Iraq, but that have already been the focus of extensive analyses elsewhere (France, Germany, Russia). The country studies that follow cannot establish beyond reasonable doubt the sources and consequences of public views of the United States. Even elite interviews and archival research, neither of which is available for such recent events, might not yield de‹nitive conclusions. These case studies begin with the assumption that public opinion has at best a limited impact on policy unless there is substantial evidence to the contrary. Thus, the burden of proof is on the thesis that public opinion about the United States and its policies was in fact consequential. Following a very brief description of pre–September 11, 2001, relations with the United States, each of the country studies examines how the government in question reacted to some of the important events of the subsequent years. These include the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the invasion of Afghanistan in October 2002, the run-up to and invasion of Iraq in March 2003, and events in Iraq since the fall of Baghdad, including insurgency that has brought the country to the brink of civil war. The analyses will also include additional events that may have been important for one, but not necessarily all seven, of the countries; for example, the devastating tsunami that struck Indonesia in December 2004, Mexican immigration issues, and U.S. tariffs imposed on softwood lumber from Canada. The Impact of “How They See Us” / 89 [3.145...

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