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CONTENTS Preface & Acknowledgments 1. Toward a Better Understanding of Theories of International Condict 2. Comparative Hypothesis Testing and Some Limits to Knowledge 3. Choosing and Testing the Arguments: The Practice and Pitfalls of Comparative Hypothesis Testing 4. Arguments and Operational Measures 5. Findings 6. Assessing a Model’s Reliability across Space and Time 7. Conclusion appendix a Data Development and Cumulation for International Relations: EUGene appendix b Measuring Expected Utility Notes Bibliography Index ix 1 15 35 70 107 165 200 223 232 249 257 277 ...

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