The Latina Advantage: Gender, Race, and Political Success

3. Predicting Latina Political Office-holding

CHAPTER 3 Predicting Latina Political Office-holding This section tackles a new set of questions as a means of evaluating the electoral advantages that Latinas hold in terms of state political environment and candidate-quality characteristics, including an investigation of the state-level factors that can influence Latina political officeholding across the country. What type of electoral districts do Latina legislators serve, and what electoral advantages do they have in terms of candidate-quality? State Variation There is a wide variation of female political descriptive representation in state legislatures. There are more women serving in state legislatures in the Northeast and West regions of the country and fewer women in the South. Scholars studying both variations across countries and across U.S. states commonly focus on three main groups of explanatory factors : structural, institutional, and cultural. Researchers (e.g., Arceneaux 2001; Hogan 2001; Norrander and Wilcox 1998; Sanbonmatsu 2002; Werner 1998) have been able to successfully predict “the likelihood that women will hold state legislative office using various state-level and district measures, including voter demographics” (Sanbonmatsu 2006:445). Previous studies have identified a set of state-level institutional factors that account for the presence of greater numbers of females in state legislatures, including those of states that have high turnover rates (Norrander and Wilcox 1998), part-time and less professional legislatures (Squire 1992b; Nechemias 1985; Rule 1981; Hill 1981), and multimember districts (Arceneauz 2001; Hogan 2001; Carroll 1994; Darcy, 54 Political and Electoral Advantages for Latinas Hadley, and Kirksey 1997; Darcy, Welch, and Clark 1994; Matland and Brown 1992; Rule and Zimmerman 1992; Welch and Studlar 1990). High turnover rates, in particular, can create more possibilities for women candidates, because they will not need to face a tough incumbent with a wealth of political advantages. This electoral opportunity is especially imperative given the fact that women are less likely than men to be incumbents (Sanbonmatsu 2006). There is still debate over the influence of term limits, which can arguably also create a positive electoral situation for both females and minorities by opening up more critical open-seat opportunities (Hodson et al. 1995; Thompson and Moncrief 1993; Jacobs 1991). Researchers have not found strong support for the positive benefits of term limits for minority groups. Caress et al. examined election outcomes in four states and found that “the increase in minority membership of a legislative body is far more the result of a minority group’s voting strength than the product of term limits ” (2003:194). Cultural factors—the characteristics of the state’s particular culture —can also either support or hinder women’s active role in politics. For instance, Norris and Inglehart found that “egalitarian attitudes toward women leaders are strongly related to the proportion of women elected to the lower houses of national parliaments” (2001:134). The cultural factors that positively influence women’s state legislative presence are less traditional gender roles and more moralistic political culture, liberal political ideologies, and well-educated or urbanized electorates (Norrander and Wilcox 2005; Rule 1994; Nechemias 1987; Hill 1981). Certain structural characteristics of a state’s population can significantly increase women’s descriptive representation in politics, including the presence of large numbers of women in the workforce (Matland 1998; Moore and Shackman 1996; Paxton and Kunovich 2003; Rule 1981, 1987) and of more women in professional occupations (Norrander and Wilcox 2005; Kenworthy and Malami 1999). State Variation and Latinas Researchers have also examined the state-by-state variation in levels of minority legislative representation. Casellas finds that Latino legislative candidates “benefit from higher percentages of Latino citizens in the state, states that are more liberal, and the presence of citizen legislatures ” (2010:139). Contrary to expectations, he also finds that Latino legislators benefit from having more white constituents than black con- Predicting Latina Political Office-holding 55 stituents, meaning that there is evidence that “Latino legislators generally represent either majority-Latino districts or districts with white and Latino majorities” (140). As a consequence of the state factors, Latino candidates are provided the most political advantages in “Florida, New Mexico, and California, whereas the least conducive are the U.S. House and New York” (2010). A few scholars (Scola 2006; Fraga et al. 2006; Barrett 1995; Moncrief , Thompson, and Schuhmann 1991; Darcy and Hadley 1988) have investigated how the same set of state-level factors can also influence the number of racial/ethnic-minority women elected to state...