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1. Introduction. A View from the Battleground’s Periphery: Latinos and the 2004 Elections
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1 Chapter One Introduction A View from the Battleground’s Periphery: Latinos and the 2004 Elections LOUI S DESIPIO A ND DAVID L. LEAL Since 1988 the first two editors of this volume have coordinated collaborative analyses of the influence of the Hispanic population on national and state politics in the United States.1 More than fifty scholars have contributed to these quadrennial analyses of Latino efforts to shape federal- and state-level politics and political institutions’ efforts to bring Latinos into their winning coalitions (de la Garza and DeSipio 1992, 1996, 1999, 2005). Each of the four volumes published thus far has struggled with an ongoing dilemma: how to characterize Latino contributions accurately so that we neither perpetuate the rhetoric claiming a strong and inevitable Hispanic influence in politics today nor undervalue the increasing contribution of Latinos to the national political fabric. This volume highlights the somewhat confusing and contradictory nature of the Latino constituency in the U.S. political arena. Early in the 2004 presidential campaigns, genuine two-party competition seemed to occur as both parties intensely courted the Hispanic electorate and established strategies for victory that included a central role for Latinos 2 Louis DeSipio and David L. Leal and as each nominee reasonably claimed substantial loyalty among speci fic Hispanic subgroups. As time progressed, however, we find that the candidates, campaigns, and parties (especially the Democrats) largely neglected and marginalized Latino leaders, voters, and campaign staff in the primaries and in the general election—in particular, John Kerry and his campaign did not make personal connections to Latino leaders or voters—and neither campaign hired many Latinos, relegating them to outreach in Hispanic communities when they did. In addition, Latino leaders were generally unable to overcome the neglect of the major parties and did not invest extensively in mobilizing Latinos new to the voting process. The Latino vote grew at rates comparable to recent periods between presidential elections, but this growth did not reduce the size of the pool of adults eligible to vote who do not turn out on election day. Nevertheless, the Latino presence and, more important, its potential as a newly coalescing, sizable, and growing electorate increasingly guides the national political discussion. Nationally, Latinos had a previously unavailable opportunity to shape the selection of the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee in one early primary (Arizona) and one early caucus (New Mexico). In addition, the expectations and potential for Latino influence remained high throughout that race, influencing candidate and campaign strategies; were we to measure only their Election Day influence, we would miss their growing role in shaping the terms of national policy debates and of candidate (and potential candidate ) strategies. This potential has already begun to affect the outcomes of local and state races. Hispanics are increasingly able to use their numbers and organizations to form coalitions with other electorates to elect Latinos to office; in 2004 their participation in key coalitions resulted in the election of two Latinos to the U.S. Senate. This volume highlights the foundation of new forms of Latino politics and successful campaigns by Latino candidates for offices not previously held by Latinos (see, e.g., chapters 3, 4, and 12, this volume). We acknowledge that not all the states analyzed here saw extensive Latino-focused mobilization or efforts to influence state or national political outcomes. Latino votes were, again, not significant to the outcome of the 2004 presidential race, and Latino voters were ultimately marginalized by the campaigns. Incremental growth in Latino voting [44.203.58.132] Project MUSE (2024-03-28 13:50 GMT) Introduction 3 and Latino influence has not reached a tipping point; Latinos still do not routinely determine national outcomes, except in the most unusual circumstances, or influence elections as many pundits and campaigns expect early in each election cycle. Nevertheless, we think it is important to continue to chronicle the conduct of the campaigns in these selected states so that we can document the rise of Latino politics in the modern era over time and across the nation. Comparisons across the years for any of the states will allow for an otherwise unavailable portrait of the substantive meaning of contemporary Latino politics. In this chapter and those that follow, we examine the political consequences of a subtle Latino voice. We begin here with a brief overview of features of the 2004 campaign that were different from those...