Beyond the Barrio: Latinos in the 2004 Elections

9. The Hispanic Vote in Florida

251 Chapter Nine The Hispanic Vote in Florida DA R I O MORENO, MARIA ILCHEVA, A ND JUA N CARLOS FLORES Florida’s twenty-seven Electoral College votes and the state’s status as a pivotal swing state ensure its continued importance in national politics. The 2000 presidential election, despite all the irregularities and mistakes , was Florida’s coming-out party as a critical player in American presidential politics. This role was repeated in the 2004 election, as both major political parties poured money, personal time, and other resources into the state. Political pundits repeated the mantra throughout the 2004 election that the road to the White House went through Florida and Ohio. Because of continuous rapid population growth, Florida is projected to surpass New York by 2010 as the nation’s third most populous state. This will heighten the importance of Florida as a battleground state as well as the importance of its Hispanic vote. The 2004 presidential election saw the continuation of the growth and diversification of the Hispanic vote in the Sunshine State. Hispanic voters now constitute 15 percent of the Florida electorate, nearly equaling the number of African American voters, who have traditionally 252 Dario Moreno, Maria Ilcheva, and Juan Carlos Flores been the most politically important minority in the state.1 The growth in the Hispanic electorate is remarkable considering that as late as 1998 Hispanics constituted only 9 percent of the state’s voters. In addition to having one of the largest Hispanic communities in the United States, Florida has the most diverse Hispanic population. The once-dominant Cuban Americans make up only 50 percent of the Hispanic vote; Puerto Ricans now make up roughly 30 percent, and the remaining 20 percent consists primarily of Colombians, Nicaraguans, Mexicans, Venezuelans, Peruvians, and Salvadorans. Current demographic trends confirm Hispanic confidence in their growing influence in state politics. Hispanics are now the largest minority group in Florida. According to the 2000 census, they accounted for 16.8 percent (2,682,715 individuals) of its population. This is remarkable growth considering that there were only 860,000 Latinos (8.9 percent of the population) in Florida in 1980. The 1990 census showed a ten-year 83 percent growth in the Hispanic population to 1,574,000, or 12.1 percent of the state total. The Hispanic population then grew by an impressive 70.4 percent from 1990 to 2000. More recent U.S. Census Bureau estimates from the 2003 American Community Survey put the Hispanic population of Florida at 3,108,578, or 18.7 percent of the state’s population. Given the rapid pace of population growth, Hispanic political power in Florida should continue to grow for the foreseeable future. Cuban Americans, accounting for just one-third of Hispanics in Florida, remain the dominant Hispanic national-origin group in that state. Over two-thirds of all Cubans in the United States live in Florida, and this extraordinary concentration has been a critical factor in Cuban political influence generally. Cuban Americans comprise eight percent of Florida’s electorate,2 and Florida’s close partisan divide allowed Cuban Americans to be the decisive voters in at least three statewide elections. Overwhelming Cuban support for Connie Mack (R-FL) was instrumental in his narrow 1988 U.S. Senate election victory. Mack edged out Buddy McKay by only 33,612 votes of the more than four million cast. Similarly, Cuban Americans provided the critical margin of victory for George H. W. Bush in Florida in 1992 and for George W. Bush (and thereby in the Electoral College) in the controversial 2000 election. The Hispanic Vote in Florida 253 In the Sunshine State, Cubans number 833,120, and a remarkable 650,601 reside in Miami-Dade County. In other words, over half of all Cubans in the United States (52 percent) and over three-fourths (78 percent) of all Cubans in Florida live in just one county. This makes Miami-Dade the epicenter of Hispanic politics in Florida (Moreno 2004: 84). It is also the only Florida county that is majority Hispanic, with a total Latino population of 1,291,737 individuals, or 58 percent. Nearly half (48.1 percent) of all Hispanics in Florida live in MiamiDade County. Neighboring Broward County has the second-largest Hispanic population in the state. Combined, 55.2 percent of the total Florida Hispanic population resides in these two...