Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals

6. An Anthropogenic Emission Inventory of Primary Air Pollutants in China for 2005 and 2010

6 An Anthropogenic Emission Inventory of Primary Air Pollutants in China for 2005 and 2010 Yu Zhao, Wei Wei, and Yu Lei 6.1 Introduction A regional emission inventory is a fundamental input into air quality modeling. Without accurate emission profiles of all relevant chemical species located in a sufficiently fine spatial distribution it would not be possible to simulate atmospheric concentrations and fluxes accurately—that is, to conduct simulations that can be confirmed by observations and can be used for policy analysis. In recent years a series of studies have developed emission inventories for Asian countries including China, with most of them choosing 2000 as the base year (Streets and Waldhoff 2000; Klimont et al. 2001; Streets et al. 2003; Ohara et al. 2007; Q. Zhang et al. 2009). Streets et al. (2003) is among the most cited inventories of Chinese emissions, and these researchers evaluated sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), ammonia (NH3), and methane (CH4) for two major studies, the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) and the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment. Most of those inventories, however, are not informed by the most recent local emission field tests or energy statistics. Akimoto et al. (2006) compared the 1996–2003 trends of energy consumption to column concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measured from satellites (Irie et al. 2005; Richter et al. 2005) and found underestimates of emissions derived from energy statistics from both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China during that period. Y. X. Wang et al. (2004) applied TRACE-P aircraft measurements and ground station observations in conjunction with model simulations run in inverse mode, and indicated that the bottom-up NOX emissions estimate should be raised by 47%, with the largest adjustment in central China. 226 Chapter 6 They also estimated that the emission adjustment for east China should be about 33% and implied that more uncertainties existed in the emissions from biomass burning and microbial sources than fuel combustion (Y. X. Wang et al. 2007). Since 2000, Chinese economic growth has been higher than that projected in government plans, and this has been accompanied by a dramatic increase in total energy consumption at an annual average growth rate of 10% according to official statistics (versus 4% for 1980–2000). Pollutant emissions from China have been rapidly growing accordingly. To limit the degradation of the atmospheric environment , China’s government set compulsory targets for energy saving and emission reduction during 2006–2010, the period of the 11th Five-Year Plan (11th FYP). Specifically, the national energy intensity (energy consumption per unit GDP) and emissions of SO2 should be reduced by 20% and 10%, respectively, between 2005 and 2010. To realize these targets, the 11th FYP required early retirement of 50GW of inefficient, small thermal power units, and required that flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems be installed at most power plants by 2010. More recently, under pressure to abate carbon emissions, the government has begun exploring the implications of implementing a carbon tax on fossil fuels at some point. We seek to evaluate and compare how these 11th FYP and carbon control policies improve regional air quality and reduce health and agricultural risks. To do so, we must first quantify the emissions of relevant atmospheric pollutants in 2005 and 2010 for a no-policy base case and different policy scenarios for use in atmospheric simulation. With that primary objective, this study developed a comprehensive and detailed emission inventory differentiated by sectors and regions of China, incorporating results from chapters 4 and 5 for the power and cement sectors and taking into account the latest domestic information on emission factors and activity levels for other sectors. Our estimates of this inventory are applicable for policy analyses like those in this volume, as well as for more purely scientific research. 6.2 Methods and Sources of Data 6.2.1 Methodology The geographical domain of this study covers the 31 provinces and provincelevel autonomous regions and municipalities in mainland China. Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan were not included. Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM) in several size classes, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), and An Anthropogenic Emission Inventory of Primary Air Pollutants in China...