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T H R E E Origins and Evolution of Nuclear-Weapons Research and Development Nuclear weapons provide stability. The most influential factors influencing a country’s decision to undertake a covert nuclear weapons program are the views of a country’s leaders. —Kenneth Waltz1 South Africa is the only African country to have produced nuclear weapons . To understand why and how South Africa covertly pursued the development of nuclear, and later chemical and biological, covert weapons programs , one needs to appreciate three characteristics usually associated with crime: motive, opportunity, and means. The historical record clearly indicates that the motives and perceptions of threats of South Africa decision makers under apartheid were important factors fueling support for sophisticated nuclear warheads and launch vehicles. Under the apartheid system, political leaders increasingly adopted a siege mentality as the country became isolated from former allies in the West and more-severe international economic sanctions were implemented . Most Afrikaans-speaking South Africans held beliefs which grew out of their shared cultural experiences of being dominated by English-speaking South Africans in the political and economic realms from the time of the defeat of the Boers in the Anglo-Boer War until 1948 when the Afrikaner National Party regained political power.2 During the postwar period , the majority of English-speaking white South Africans, while unhappy with the greater privileges Afrikaners enjoyed in politics, also shared the overarching apartheid goal of preserving white advantage in South African society. Only a relatively small but committed number of Englishspeaking whites, along with an even smaller number of Afrikaners, opted out of the status quo or joined the liberation struggle for a new political order. The Afrikaans- and English-speaking scientists who worked on the covert nuclear, biological, and chemical programs also shared a strong sense of patriotism. The Afrikaans- and English-speaking scientists who worked on the covert nuclear, biological and chemical programs were united by a strong commitment to make sure the programs were successful. This group of well-trained and creative scientists and engineers formed the human capital needed to design and build sophisticated weapons systems in an increasingly isolated scientific environment. A third important cluster of variables relates to the large deposits of strategic natural resources, particularly uranium, available in South Africa at the beginning of the nuclear age. The desire to exploit large reserves of uranium in order to maintain industrial development served as the initial catalyst for exploring the feasibility of exploiting the new nuclear power technology. After the National Party regained political power in 1948, South African political leaders continued nuclear research for both peaceful and military purposes. Timing also played a role in South Africa’s decisions to develop secret nuclear weapons. South African scientists demonstrated the feasibility of uranium enrichment at the same time that the country began to experience increased threats from enemies in the region and throughout the world. Thus, a confluence of events over time figured into the decision-making calculus of key senior political, military, and nuclear power officials. As the country developed the capability to produce sophisticated nuclear weapons and an increasingly sophisticated defense industry, South Africa’s political leaders faced growing threats to political stability from domestic opponents and newly independent nation-states in the region. Faced with growing threats and the capability to build weapons of mass destruction, South Africa’s political leaders opted to build six nuclear weapons. Over time, the combination of technical abilities and increased perceptions of threat fueled support for even-more-sophisticated nuclear warheads and a variety of launch vehicles capable of carrying strategic and tactical nuclear warheads. Smaller nuclear warheads and longer-range missiles came to be viewed as important force multipliers for a military that was having trouble obtaining parts and new technologies from abroad for their air force. Throughout the 1970s, South Africa’s senior politicians became increasingly committed to the belief that secret weapons of mass destruction and launch vehicles were useful tools of diplomacy.3 South African politicians were adept at exploiting opportunities to develop nuclear weapons in a changing domestic, regional, and international environment. Early technical exchanges with Western states helped South Africa obtain the necessary training and knowledge needed to launch a covert nuclear program. As South Africa increasingly became viewed as a “pariah state,” it forged new covert relationships with Israel and other states around the world. The country’s leaders opted to develop increasingly sophisticated tactical and strategic weapons and launch vehiOrigins and Evolution of Nuclear-Weapons Research 27...

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