Cover

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Frontmatter

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Contents

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Preface

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pp. ix-xii

It is unorthodox for a statistician and an economist to write a book about politics. This is particularly true when one realizes that our thesis involves the consequences for a science of political choice of something so amorphous and ill-defined as ideology. In truth, it is the very fact that ideology has remained amorphous and ill-defined in the study of political choice that provoked us to ...

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1. Ideology and Politics

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pp. 1-22

Most scholarly research on elections appears to accept Professor Rogers's first insight as true, and the second as inexplicable. The "politics" of the campaign, the speeches, the persuasion, the posturing, and the symbolism, are just applesauce, a minor side dish to the main course of issue stew. Consequently, it is hard to explain why enormous resources of money, time, and ...

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2. Representing Choice by Consumers and Citizens

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pp. 23-38

The goal of the next four chapters is to find a means of representing political choice that is both verisimilous and scientifically sound. To represent public choices, it is useful first to briefly review the extensive work on private choice, and individual preferences over public outcomes. Two separate ques tions drive our consideration of voter choice among the platforms of candi- ...

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3. The (Amended) Classical Spatial Theory of Elections

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pp. 39-60

Any discussion of classical spatial theory applied to politics must begin with Downs (1957). In the next chapter, we will focus on Downs's theory of ideology; for now we examine his theory of voting. Because many of Downs's fundamental insights have been ignored or only partially developed, his model of voting is presented at length. But before we begin, it is useful to make some ...

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4. Ideology, Candidate Strategy, and the Theory of Elections

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pp. 61-80

In the previous two chapters, we reviewed the microeconomic approach and the classical spatial approach to the problem of political choice. The problems, or apparent flaws, we pointed out in these models are actually results, conclusions that circumscribe what can be said about politics. It is interesting, and surprising, that the extraordinarily powerful microeconomic model of ...

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5. Parties and Ideology

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pp. 81-94

It would be the height of hubris to pretend to develop a theory of party development and competition in one chapter. Duverger (1951) devoted an entire volume to the question. Literally hundreds of works have attempted to define and categorize parties, coalitions, and their relation to issues and voters since, some more prominent being Key (1955); Campbell, Converse, Stokes, ...

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6. Theory and Evidence on Spatial Models of Ideology

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pp. 95-130

So far, we have done two things in this book. First, we have identified some problems with the classical formal model of politics. There is an important positive interpretation to the flaws discussed above, of course. The "problems" represent the conceptual building blocks for a new and more complete theory of politics. Second, we have defined and distinguished two important ...

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7. Empirical Models Based on the Theory of Ideology

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pp. 131-164

The classical spatial theory of elections is based on the assumption that citizens choose alternatives that are "closest," in some weighted Euclidean space of "issues." The conclusion of the previous chapters is that this approach is neither realistic nor accurate as a means of representing political choice. We have not claimed that the theory is wrong, or that it is not useful. ...

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8. Representing Public Choices by Citizens

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pp. 165-176

The first seven chapters of this book have developed a simple version of the theory of ideology in the representation of political choices by citizens. The theory might be summarized as follows. ...

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9. The Role of Groups

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pp. 177-194

Our goal has been to create a model of political choice that incorporates citizens' uncertainty about the likely actions of politicians. As the reader will recall, the orthodox spatial model allows for no uncertainty. The probabilistic spatial model allows for uncertainty from the perspective of the observer, but retains the essential character of the classical model in that voters act (from ...

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10. The Integrated Model of Politicians, Voters, and Interest Groups

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pp. 195-220

So far, we have identified only pieces of a complete model of politics. We have claimed that ideology is the means by which communication takes place, and the basis of political understanding. Ideology is not a substitute for rationality; it is the way citizens think about political life precisely because they purposively seek the best alternative in making political choices. The ...

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11. The Implications of Ideology for Political Choice

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pp. 221-238

We are now ready to ask the questions that we claimed, at the outset, could only be answered by a theory of ideology. Why is political conflict so rarely a "rational" debate over policy, and so often a battle between good and evil? Why do some societies prosper and others, with similar natural resources, space, and population, languish? How can Japan, in this century, and England...

References

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pp. 239-254

Name Index

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pp. 255-258

Subject Index

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pp. 259-267