Cover

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Title Page, Copyright

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Contents

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p. v

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Acknowledgments

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pp. vii-ix

This book traces its origins to work I performed as a military analyst in the U.S. government.1 I was drafting a strategic assessment on how great powers would react to a particular nuclear proliferation issue and was surprised by my own analysis. We often hear that nuclear proliferation poses a general threat to international peace and security and that, for this reason, great powers can work together to combat the threat of nuclear proliferation....

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

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pp. xi-xii

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Introduction: The Problem of Nuclear Assistance

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pp. 1-9

Nuclear proliferation poses a grave threat to international peace and security. For this reason, politicians, policymakers, and academics worry that nuclearcapable states will provide sensitive nuclear assistance to other states or terrorist networks, further fueling the spread of nuclear weapons. For example, following North Korea’s nuclear test in October 2006, George W. Bush declared that “the transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to...

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1. Explaining Nuclear Assistance

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pp. 10-49

This chapter develops a strategic theory of nuclear proliferation and applies it to the problem of sensitive nuclear assistance. In short, I will argue that nuclear proliferation threatens some states more than others and that the threat posed by nuclear proliferation depends on a state’s ability to project military power. States that have the ability to project military power over a particular target state, states that I call “power-projecting states,” are most threatened by nuclear proliferation to that particular state because...

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2. The Correlates of Nuclear Assistance

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pp. 50-66

This chapter presents a number of statistical tests, drawing on an original sensitive nuclear assistance dataset, to analyze the determinants of nuclear assistance. The analysis provides strong support for the strategic theory of nuclear proliferation presented in this book. In accordance with Hypothesis 1, the less able a state is to project power over a potential nuclear recipient, the more likely it is to provide sensitive nuclear assistance....

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3. Israel’s Nuclear Program: French Assistance and U.S. Resistance

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pp. 67-110

From 1959 to 1965, France provided Israel with sensitive nuclear assistance, helping Israel acquire nuclear weapons. During the same time period, the United States refused Israeli requests for sensitive nuclear assistance and actively intervened in an attempt to prevent French-Israeli nuclear cooperation. What explains the different approaches that France and the United States took to the Israeli nuclear program? Why did France help...

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4. Common Enemies, Growling Dogs, and A. Q. Khan’s Pakistan: Nuclear Supply in Other Countries

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pp. 111-150

To this point, the book has provided quantitative evidence and in-depth case analysis that has provided strong support for the strategic theory of nuclear proliferation. Although the evidence presented to this point may be persuasive, a skeptical reader may glance at the list of cases of sensitive nuclear assistance listed in appendix C and wonder whether the theory can explain a broader set of cases. Is the “enemy of my enemy is my customer....

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5. Importing the Bomb: Nuclear Assistance and Nuclear Proliferation

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pp. 151-172

In previous chapters, I explained the causes of sensitive nuclear assistance. But why should we care about the causes of sensitive nuclear assistance? Does sensitive nuclear assistance lead to the proliferation of nuclear weapons? The idea that states that get help with their nuclear programs will be more likely to acquire nuclear weapons has intuitive appeal, but international nuclear transfers may have no meaningful effect on nuclear proliferation. States with an intense demand for nuclear weapons or sufficient domestic...

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Conclusion: Preventing Nuclear Proliferation

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pp. 173-190

Why do states provide sensitive nuclear assistance to nonnuclear weapon states, contributing to the international spread of nuclear weapons? Why do other nuclear-capable states refrain from providing such assistance? Few questions are more important for international relations scholars interested in understanding the role of nuclear weapons in international politics and for policymakers interested in stopping the spread of nuclear...

Appendixes:

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pp. 191-204

Bibliography

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pp. 205-226

Index

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pp. 227-234