Front Cover

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Copyright Information

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Table of Contents

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pp. v-vi

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Foreword

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pp. vii-xi

Two thousand nine is the fiftieth anniversary of the Cuban Revolution that brought Fidel Castro to power. On New Year’s Day 2009, his brother and successor, Raúl Castro, vowed that the socialist slogan “Socialismo o muerte,” “Socialism or death,” would guide Cuba for another half century. Yet change was in the air even as he spoke, for Raúl had announced a series of reforms since assuming the presidency in February 2008. Cuban...

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1. Introduction

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pp. 1-13

If one compares outcomes to stated objectives, U.S. policy toward Cuba may be the most significant failure in the history of American foreign policy. An almost five-decade embargo and numerous attempts to isolate and undermine the Castro government have not produced democratic change. In February 2008, Fidel Castro successfully orchestrated a succession,...

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2. Cuba: A New Policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement

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pp. 14-33

U.S. policy toward Cuba should advance the democratic aspirations ofthe Cuban people and strengthen U.S. credibility throughout the hemisphere. Our nearly 50-year-old policy toward Cuba has failed on both counts: it has resulted in a downward spiral of U.S. influence on the island and has left the United States isolated in the hemisphere and...

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3. U.S. Policy: Constraints of a Historical Legacy

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pp. 34-57

On February 7, 2008, the project hosted the first of six simulation exercises to assess the scope, limitations, and potential of the United States to promote an enabling environment for peaceful democratic transition in Cuba. The focus of the simulation was the question, Can U.S. policy, bound as it is by historical constraints—the embargo and restrictions on travel, remittances, and limited diplomatic engagement—promote political...

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4. U.S. Policy: A New Strategy toward Cuba

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pp. 58-83

In the afternoon of February 7, 2008, following the project's first simulation exercise, which examined the scope for U.S. policy to advance the Bush administration's objectives within its historic constraints, the national security adviser convened participants to craft a new strategy toward Cuba without the constraints of ideological parameters. The...

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5. Understanding the Cuban Leadership

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pp. 84-114

The third simulation exercise, held on March 4, 2008, focused on the internal dynamics, motivations, and decision making processes of the Cuban hierarchy. Following on the heels of Fidel Castro's decision to step down and temporarily hand over power to his brother, Brookings project advisers and special guests assessed the objectives and incentives of...

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6. Transforming Disparate Voices into a Dynamic Civil Society Coalition

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pp. 115-146

On April 16, 2008, the Brookings Institution, in conjunction with the University of Miami, held its fourth simulation exercise on the dynamics, motivations, and decision making processes of Cuban civil society groups. As Cuba moves toward an uncertain future, participants sought to examine and better understand the interests, capabilities, and weaknesses of...

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7. Coordinating U.S. Policy with the International Community

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pp. 147-180

On October 9, 2008, in advance of the U.S. presidential election, Brookings Institution advisers and guests met to explore the opportunities and constraints facing policy makers as they seek to coordinate U.S. policy with international partners and allies. Democratic governance and the robust rule of law in Cuba are goals the United States shares with the...

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8. Creating Consensus in the Cuban American Community

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pp. 181-219

The sixth simulation exercise, held shortly after the U.S. presidential election, on December 2, 2008, focused on the dynamics and motivations ofthe Cuban American community and divisive issues that relate to U.S.policy toward Cuba. Changing demographics inside the community have produced new perspectives on contacts with the island. More Cuban...

Appendix A: Understanding the Legal Parameters of the U.S. Embargo on Cuba

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pp. 221-227

Appendix B: 2008 Florida International University Poll of Cuban American Opinion

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pp. 229-237

Index

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pp. 239-245

Back Cover

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