Cover

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Title Page, Copyright

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Contents

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List of Abbreviations

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pp. vii-viii

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Chapter 1: Fateful Transitions

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pp. 1-16

An age-old question—how to manage the rise of new powers—looms large for the United States, Europe, and much of Asia. Although the nature of the emerging international order remains unclear, the geopolitics of the twenty-first century has earlier parallels. Since the late 1800s, the world’s major democracies...

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Chapter 2: Power Shifts and Strategy

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pp. 17-31

This chapter connects power transitions, regime type, and the choices that democratic leaders make as they navigate the rise of other nations. The argument is that democracy in an ascendant state reassures while autocratic rule creates a climate of uncertainty and mistrust. Democracies can rise...

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Chapter 3: Pax Britannica Eclipsed

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pp. 32-58

As the United States, Europe, and much of Asia navigate the rise of new powers, the British experience at the turn of the twentieth century is instructive. Although the Pax Britannica ended on the battlefields of the First World War, the eclipse of British power occurred earlier. Between 1870 and 1914, Great...

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Chapter 4: Germany Resurgent

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pp. 59-79

Great Britain’s strategy toward the resurgence of Germany during the 1930s is traditionally synonymous with appeasement. Recklessly credulous, British leaders offered Adolf Hitler a series of unilateral concessions culminating with the Munich Agreement, which transferred Czechoslovakian...

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Chapter 5: Red Star Rising

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pp. 80-98

The destruction wrought by the Second World War precipitated the rise of the Soviet Union. Powerful states on the USSR periphery were either shattered by defeat or exhausted in victory. At the same time, the Red Army advanced to the heart of Europe, placing vast new territories and large foreign...

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Chapter 6: Emerging Superpower

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pp. 99-118

Napoleon Bonaparte reputedly warned: “Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.”1 Two centuries later, China’s long slumber has ended. Roused by capitalist reforms enacted under Communist Party rule, China is emerging as a superpower second only to the United States. China’s rise and...

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Chapter 7: Neighboring Titan

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pp. 119-138

The United States is not the only democratic nation experiencing a fateful transition as China rises. America’s ally and China’s neighbor, Japan, confronts a much sharper power shift. Once Asia’s largest economy and leading voice, Japan has in recent years fallen behind China, its fading...

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Chapter 8: Implications for the Twenty-First Century

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pp. 139-150

Regime type is key to understanding the dynamics of fateful transitions. Autocracies sow mistrust as they gain in power while democracies can rise and reassure. In power shifts ranging from the British response to the emergence of the United States and Germany in the late nineteenth century to China’s recent...

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Appendix 1: Omitted Cases

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pp. 151-153

This book explains how democratic powers navigate the rise of other states; it does not attempt to illuminate the strategic choices that all democratic countries, large and small, make. Thus, the number of power transitions relevant to this study is small. Even then, a number of potential cases were considered...

Appendix 2: Coding Checks and Balances

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p. 154

Appendix 3: Measuring Freedom of the Press

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pp. 155-164

Notes

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pp. 165-204

Bibliography

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pp. 205-226

Index

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pp. 227-234

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Acknowledgments

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pp. 235-236

Audrey Emanuel Kliman and Wayne Kliman, my parents, have given me love and support every step of the way. I dedicate this book to them, to my late grandparents, Karoline and Max Emanuel, whose lives inspire, and to Carolyn Trager Kliman, who brightened my life as soon as she entered it...