Title Page, Copyright

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Contents

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pp. vii-ix

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Preface

Richard J. Ellings

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pp. xi-xviii

The Strategic Asia Program chronicles, explains, and forecasts the critical international developments in what is today the core of world power and influence. As the program has made clear for many years, according to nearly every meaningful measure—from economic and military to political—usable national power is concentrating in the Asia-Pacific, and extraordinarily so. In this new volume, Strategic Asia 2012–13: China’s Military Challenge, we return to Strategic...

Section I. Overview

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1. Uphill Challenges: China’s Military Modernization and Asian Security

Ashley J. Tellis

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pp. 3-24

Although the United States was engaged in Asian geopolitics long before World War II, the decisive U.S. victory in that conflict marked a turning point in U.S.-Asian relations. The demise of Japan as a major challenger paved the way for the inauguration of a new regional order underwritten by the military power of the United States. Although a transformed order of some kind would have inevitably...

Section II: Emerging Chinese Military Capabilities

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2. China’s Land Forces: New Priorities and Capabilities

Roy Kamphausen

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pp. 27-60

China’s place as the preeminent continental power of Asia is well established. Th e historical “middle kingdom” has been master of the eastern half of the Eurasian land mass since antiquity. Integral to China’s historical supremacy in the region were the fundamental advantages its military forces enjoyed by means of interior lines—China is in the center of Asia—and the continental depth afforded by being Asia’s largest country. With the...

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3. China’s Modernization of Its Naval and Air Power Capabilities

Andrew S. Erickson

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pp. 61-126

Th e People’s Republic of China (PRC) entered the second decade of the 21st century as a global economic and political power. Th e country is now in its third decade of rapid military modernization and boasts growing regional capabilities. Poverty in its vast interior, ethnic unrest in its western regions, and ongoing territorial and maritime disputes continue to necessitate...

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4. The Second Artillery Force and the Future of Long-Range Precision Strike

Mark A. Stokes

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pp. 127-162

Th e emergence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a major economic, technological, military, and political power is changing the dynamics within the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large. Efforts by the People’s Liberation Army (PA) to acquire long-range precision-strike capabilities—ballistic missiles in particular—support the PRC’s quest for domestic and international political legitimacy, and help render the PLA a military that is commensurate...

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5. Controlling the Information Domain: Space, Cyber, and Electronic Warfare

Kevin Pollpeter

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pp. 163-194

Since the late 1990s, China’s military has been rapidly modernizing its forces. The increasing role of information in warfare has focused the attention of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on using information and denying its use to enemies. In particular, the role of space-based assets, the ubiquity of electronic systems, and their linkage to computers and computer networks to create systems...

Section III: Regional Impact and Responses

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6. China’s Military Modernization: U.S. Allies and Partners in Northeast Asia

Christopher W. Hughes

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pp. 197-240

Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the Republic of China (ROC) all harbor significant national security concerns vis-à-vis China’s rise and its military modernization. For Taiwan, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the prime security concern. For Japan, China likewise increasingly looms as the greatest medium- to long-term threat to national security. Although South Korea is immediately preoccupied with North Korea, China represents a threat standing...

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7. Southeast Asia and Australia: Case Studies in Responding to China’s Military Power

Andrew Shearer

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pp. 241-276

Southeast Asia is growing in geopolitical importance and has come to play a vital role in the global economy by virtue of straddling maritime chokepoints between the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Australia is one step removed from the direct consequences of China’s military modernization compared with maritime Southeast Asia, and two steps removed compared...

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8. China’s Military Modernization: Responses from India

Arun Sahgal

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pp. 277-306

India’s strategic concerns regarding China arise from the latter’s emergence as the most influential actor in Asia—one with the ability to shape the future balance of power. What is even more worrisome to India is growing Chinese influence in South Asia and the extended Indian Ocean region (IOR), where New Delhi believes Beijing is severely depreciating its area of influence. Furthermore, China...

Section IV: U.S. Responses

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9. The U.S. Response to China’s Military Modernization

Dan Blumenthal

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pp. 309-340

Th e idea of extended deterrence is a product of the nuclear age. From the perspective of the deterrence guarantor, the purposes of such a policy are threefold: to deter an attack on an ally, to deter the use of nuclear weapons against an ally, and to deter nuclear war altogether. Because nuclear weapons cause unthinkable destruction, statesmen strive to deter their use entirely. As a result, debates about deterrence are largely “astrategic”: they are fundamentally....

Section V: Special Study

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10. China’s Vision of World Order

Thomas Fingar

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pp. 343-374

If China had an opportunity to refashion the global order, what would it change and what would it seek to accomplish? The question is certainly premature because it will be a long time, if ever, before China has an opportunity to replace or restructure the liberal world order that has been established and led by the United States during the decades since World War II.1 But...

Section VI: Indicators

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11. Strategic Asia by the Numbers

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pp. 377-390

The following twelve pages contain tables and figures drawn from NBR’s Strategic Asia database and its sources. This appendix consists of fourteen tables covering politics, economics, trade and investment, energy and the environment, security challenges, and nuclear arms and nonproliferation. The data sets presented here summarize the critical trends in the region and changes underway..

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Contributors

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pp. 391-396

Dan Blumenthal (JD, Duke University) is the Director of Asian Studies and a Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he focuses on East Asian security issues and Sino-American relations. Mr. Blumenthal has both served in and advised the U.S. government on China issues for over...

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About the Series

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pp. 397-400

The Strategic Asia Program at The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) is a major ongoing research initiative that draws together top Asia studies specialists and international relations experts to assess the changing strategic environment in the Asia-Pacific. The program transcends traditional estimates...

Index

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pp. 401-408