Cover

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Title Page, Copyright

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Contents

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pp. vii-viii

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Preface

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pp. ix-x

In early 2002, with the help of Alun Lloyd, Steven Tanner, Ben Bolker,and Tony Sun, I took on the task of creating a state-of-the-art review of models for the geographic spread of human infectious diseases, with particular attention to those models that were used for practical studies involving large epidemiological data sets. What was originally con-...

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Chapter One Introduction

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pp. 1-11

In the fall and winter of 1918-19 a deadly epidemic of influenza, commonly known as the Spanish flu, erupted in Europe. Soldiers returning home at the end of the World War I carried the epidemic to all parts of the world, eventually resulting in the death of a least 20-40 million people and perhaps significantly more (Crosby, Johnson and Mueller, 2002; Potter, 2001). The major...

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Chapter Two The Art of Epidemic Modeling: Concepts and Basic Structures

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pp. 12-57

Mathematical models of the geographic spread of infectious diseases are, in almost all cases, adaptations and generalizations of models developed to explore disease transmission within a single population. Because the single-population models are much simpler in structure,and since many of the most useful results derived from epidemic mod-...

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Chapter Three Modeling the Geographic Spread of Inuenza Epidemics

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pp. 58-85

Some of the earliest models describing the geographic spread of infectious diseases were developed to understand and predict the spread of influenza epidemics, and such models continue to provide the foundation for important present-day research. Most early models for the geographic spread of influenza epidemics as well as several more re-...

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Chapter Four Modeling Geographic Spread I: Population-based Approaches

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pp. 86-116

As the discussion of influenza models in the previous chapter showed the distribution of populations across space and the patterns of interaction that link groups are important influences on how infectious diseases spread across time and space. In this chapter we describe in more detail the types of population-based models that have been...

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Chapter Five Spatial Heterogeneity and Endemicity: The Case of Measles

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pp. 117-133

Measles has probably been the focus of more geographically oriented modeling work than any other infectious disease and this work has a very long history. Many of the earliest measles modeling studies were stimulated by the mid-19th-century contributions of Peter Ludwig Panum, a Danish physician sent in 1846 to study and outbreak of measles on the Faroe Islands in the North Sea (see Figure 5.1)....

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Chapter Six Modeling Geographic Spread II: Individual-based Approaches

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pp. 134-175

Epidemiologists have long had a standard procedure, contact tracing, that they have followed in trying to isolate the cause of a disease outbreak and in attempting to control the outbreak. Contact tracing involves interviewing cases of an infectious disease to determine who they may have come into contact with while infectious,...

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Chapter Seven Spatial Models and the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

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pp. 176-190

In the middle of February 2001, the Official Veterinary Surgeon at a slaughterhouse in Essex, U.K., noticed that several recently slaughtered pigs were lame. This was a primary symptom suggestive of a particularly feared disease of domesticated animals, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), that had not been reported in the country for 34 years....

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Chapter Eight Maps, Projections, and GIS: Geographers' Approaches

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pp. 191-214

When most people think of how objects, entities, or characteristics are distributed in and spread across space, they think of geography and maps. Yet much of the work of geographers on the spatial spread of infectious diseases is relatively unknown within the epidemic modeling community. Geographers have been studying the spread of in-...

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Chapter Nine Revisiting SARS and Looking to the Future

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pp. 215-236

The vast majority of modeling studies described in the preceding pages analyzed the characteristics of past epidemics with two primary goals in mind | increasing our understanding of the specific features of the disease patterns being studied, and generating insights that could be used to help limit the spread of new outbreaks of disease. Yet except...

Bibliography

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pp. 237-278

Index

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pp. 279-286