Title Page, Copyright, Dedication

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 1-6

Contents

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. vii-viii

read more

Preface

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. ix-xii

This book grows out of a broader desire to grapple with the tension between the dangers of deterrence failure and spirals in international affairs. This dichotomy of sources of inadvertent escalation cries out for policy-relevant scholarship. Understanding when each of these two—often opposed—dangers is more prevalent would be highly valuable to national leaders. ...

I. The Dangers of Doctrinal Difference

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 1-2

read more

1. The Military Language of Diplomacy

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 3-17

The deaths of millions in the Korean War might have been avoided if China and the United States had read each other’s military signals correctly. Similarly, the Arab-Israeli War of 1973 might have been averted if the antagonists had evaluated threats and the overall balance more accurately; if so, the Middle East might look very different now. ...

read more

2. Doctrinal Differences and Misperception

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 18-48

Doctrinal-difference theory states that when nations have different doctrines and hold different beliefs about what kinds of military strategies and capabilities may be effective, diplomacy and signaling will be more difficult, and this can cause escalation or conflict. In this chapter, the two stages of this process are expressed as a pair of hypotheses: ...

Part II. Chinese and American Puzzles

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 49-50

read more

3. Comparing Theories of Victory: Facing Off over Korea

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 51-86

The central pair of cases in this book examines crucial turning points in the Korean War: the U.S. decision to cross the 38th parallel into North Korea (chapter 4) and Mao Zedong’s decision to cross the Yalu River to meet the American forces (chapter 5). Both cases involve a similar assessment of the two sides’ military capabilities. ...

read more

4. The United States Crosses the 38th Parallel

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 87-133

After the North Korean attack across the 38th parallel of June 25, 1950, the United States rushed to aid the collapsing South Korean forces. Through the summer of 1950, the ground war went poorly for the South Korean and U.S. forces, which were pushed back in a long retreat to the Pusan Perimeter. ...

read more

5. China Crosses the Yalu

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 134-168

Once the United States crossed the 38th parallel, the next key escalation in the war was the Chinese decision to move south across the Yalu River into North Korea, countering the American military might that moved rapidly northward. The evidence available during the early Cold War appeared to support the argument that war might have been avoided ...

read more

6. China Postpones the Invasion of Taiwan

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 169-196

In 1950, the United States deterred China from invading Taiwan as China sought to conclude its civil war. Doctrinal-difference theory predicts that when two adversaries practice similar doctrines, deterrence is facilitated because signals are more likely to be clearly understood and assessments of the balance of power are more likely to be consistent. ...

Part III. Extending the Story

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 197-198

read more

7. The Emergence of Doctrinal Differences in the Middle East, 1956 to 1973

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 199-230

Since its founding in 1948, Israel has always faced adversaries on its borders, at times implacable and numerous. However, the intensity of militarized conflict between Israel and its neighbors has varied. In this chapter, doctrinal-difference theory explains, in part, that variation: ...

read more

8. Implications for Theory and Dangers in the Taiwan Strait Today

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 231-252

This study shows how adversaries’ doctrinal differences can cause misperception and the failure of attempts at coercion or deterrence, leading to conflict, escalation, and war. In case after case—China, Israel, Egypt, and the United States—we see a country looking at the world through its own military lens ...

Index

pdf iconDownload PDF

pp. 253-260