Contents

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p. ix

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms

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pp. xi-xii

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Preface

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pp. xiii-xvi

This project began during my one-year tenure in the U.S. intelligence community, where I analyzed countries with nuclear weapons programs. We focused a great deal of time and effort on these states: what activities they were engaged in, and more important, how we could stop them. However, a few months into the job ...

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CHAPTER ONE. Exploring Nuclear Restraint

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pp. 1-33

The nuclear nonproliferation regime's list of high-profile and brazen failures is both long and discouraging. Consider that states that have not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) flaunt their nuclear programs; witness the 1998 nuclear tit-for-tat between India and Pakistan; and NPT signatories ...

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CHAPTER TWO. Understanding the International Social Environment

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pp. 34-52

The international social environment influences elite decision-making regarding nuclear weapons acquisition, and chapter 1 outlines three major outcomes from that influence: persuasion, conformity, and identification.1 Questions remain, however: what comprises this international social environment, and how ...

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CHAPTER THREE. Japanese Nuclear Decision-Making

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pp. 53-98

Japan's continued non-nuclear status seems rather puzzling. With high levels of economic, scientific, and technological development, and a sophisticated nuclear energy program, including a plutonium-based fuel cycle, Japan certainly has the means to develop a nuclear weapons program. And bordered by nuclear-armed ...

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CHAPTER FOUR. Egyptian Nuclear Decision-Making

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pp. 99-149

Of all the countries that might have developed nuclear weapons but instead refrained, Egypt is the most curious case. All "typical" signs point to an Egyptian bomb. Egypt fought and lost four wars with a nuclear-armed neighbor, Israel. Although Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979, most describe it ...

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CHAPTER FIVE. Nuclear Decision-Making in Libya, Sweden, and Germany

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pp. 150-200

The cases of Japan and Egypt highlight critical lessons in the search for understanding how countries decide whether to pursue a nuclear weapons capability. State elites certainly consider security needs -- but how security is defined is much broader and more inclusive than might be predicted by traditional approaches. ...

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CHAPTER SIX. Reflections on Theory and Policy

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pp. 201-224

One of the great mysteries in international politics today is why so few states have developed nuclear weapons. Cases such as North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran only underscore the point: if a country has the political will, not even poverty or underdevelopment can keep it from building a nuclear weapons program. ...

Notes

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pp. 225-262

Bibliography

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pp. 263-284

Index

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pp. 285-297