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From Ethnic Conflict to Stillborn Reform

The Former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia

By Shale Horowitz

Publication Year: 2005

From Ethnic Conflict to Stillborn Reform is the first complete treatment of the major post-communist conflicts in both the former Yugoslavia— Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, and Serbia—and the former Soviet Union—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Tajikistan. It is also the first work that focuses not on causes but rather on consequences for democratization and market reform, the two most widely studied political outcomes in the developing world. Building on existing work emphasizing the effects of economic development and political culture, the book adds a new, comprehensive treatment of how war affects political and economic reform. Author Shale Horowitz employs both statistical evidence and historical case studies of the eight new nations to determine that ethnic conflict entangles, distracts, and destabilizes reformist democratic governments, while making it easier for authoritarian leaders to seize and consolidate power. As expected, economic backwardness worsens these tendencies, but Horowitz finds that powerful reform-minded nationalist ideologies can function as antidotes. The comprehensiveness of the treatment, use of both qualitative and quantitative analysis, and focus on standard concepts from comparative politics make this book an excellent tool for classroom use, as well as a ground-breaking analysis for scholars.

Published by: Texas A&M University Press


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title page

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p. vii


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p. ix


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p. x

PART I: Introduction

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CHAPTER 1. Democratization and Market Reform in War-Torn Post-Communist States

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pp. 3-26

The reforms of Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and the associated collapse of the Soviet Union’s Eastern European satellite regimes removed the external threat that had held the Yugoslav state together after the death of Josip Broz Tito, the founder of the post–World War II communist regime. What remained was a decentralized state, in which the forces favoring secession and ...

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CHAPTER 2. Theory, Statistical Tests, and Literature Review

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pp. 27-54

... emphasizing national renewal (“frustrated national ideals”). Second, the main expected effects of war are discussed in this context of transition. The main factors are distraction, militarization of the state, military defeat, and economic isolation. There is also an extended discussion of factors expected to contribute to military defeat or victory. Next, the main hypotheses are restated and ...

PART II: The Former Soviet Union

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CHAPTER 3. Azerbaijan

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pp. 57-72

... August, 1991, collapse. Karabakh Armenian forces, backed by aid and volunteers from Armenia, scored a series of decisive victories. By mid-1992, all of Karabakh, along with other Azerbaijani territory linking Karabakh to Armenia, was in Armenian hands. In 1993, Karabakh Armenian forces seized additional blocs of Azerbaijan east and south of Karabakh. The May, 1994, ceasefire left these huge Armenian gains intact. ...

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CHAPTER 4. Armenia

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pp. 73-88

... to stop the snowballing Armenian separatist movement. With the August, 1991, collapse of Soviet power, full-scale war erupted. With support from Armenia, Karabakh Armenian forces won a dramatic military victory. By the time a ceasefire was signed in May, 1994, Karabakh Armenian forces held not only all of Nagorno-Karabakh (henceforth “Karabakh”), but also large additional swathes ...

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CHAPTER 5. Georgia

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pp. 89-107

Abkhaz forces in particular won a total victory, and Georgia was forced to make humiliating concessions to Russia to avoid a total collapse of internal order. These conflicts and defeats seriously threatened Georgia’s nascent democracy and halted market-reform efforts. However, since the conflicts ended, democracy and market reform have made significant, if still shaky, comebacks. ...

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CHAPTER 6. Moldova

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pp. 108-126

... region east of the Dniester River, and in Gagauz Turkish regions in the South. From late 1990 there were frequent clashes between Russian and Moldovan paramilitaries or armed bands in Transnistria, and between Gagauz and Moldovan fighters in the South. At the time of the August, 1991, coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev, Russian elites seized local administrative and police ...

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CHAPTER 7. Tajikistan

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pp. 127-142

... guerrilla tactics from their refuges in the mountains and across the Afghan frontier. However, internal divisions among the communist-era elites, with Uzbekistan siding with the losing faction, provided an opening for an opposition military recovery in 1996 and 1997. This was the basis for the peace agreement signed in June, 1997, in which the incumbent government made important ...

PART III: The Former Yugoslavia

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CHAPTER 8. Croatia

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pp. 145-163

Units of the Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA) and paramilitaries from Serbia proper supported local Serb forces. A cease-fire in January, 1992, left about one-third of Croatian territory under Serb control. There were scattered engagements in subsequent years. Croatia also intervened in the fighting in neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina, sometimes supporting the Bosnian Croats against ...

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CHAPTER 9. Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Muslims, Croats, and Serbs

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pp. 164-185

... political independence, Bosnian Serb and Serbia-based paramilitaries armed by the Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA) launched military operations across Bosnia to seize territory. Within a few months, Serb forces, swelled by approximately half the large JNA force hitherto based in Bosnia, controlled about two-thirds of Bosnian territory. In April, 1993, fighting erupted between Croat and Muslim ...

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CHAPTER 10. Serbia

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pp. 186-208

... one-third of Croatia’s territory. From April, 1992, a similar war soon gave Bosnian Serb forces control of two-thirds of Bosnian territory. In later stages of these wars, Croatian and Bosnian Serb forces were left to fight alone— although Serbia continued to support them with money and arms. In late 1995, Croatian, Bosnian Croat, and Bosnian Muslim forces won rapid and decisive ...

PART IV: Conclusions

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CHAPTER 11. War and the Contradictions of Reform Nationalism

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pp. 211-224

The main hypotheses on the consequences of war—that distraction, militarization and defeat, and postwar economic isolation cumulatively undermine democratization and market reform—are consistently confirmed. In addition, it is argued that ethnic conflicts should be explained not just in terms of regime types and capabilities, but also in terms of what issues and objectives are involved. International intervention occurs ...


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pp. 225-248


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pp. 249-270


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pp. 271-281

E-ISBN-13: 9781603445931
E-ISBN-10: 1603445935
Print-ISBN-13: 9781585443963
Print-ISBN-10: 1585443964

Page Count: 296
Illustrations: 8 maps. 6 tables. 7 figs.
Publication Year: 2005

OCLC Number: 824698967
MUSE Marc Record: Download for From Ethnic Conflict to Stillborn Reform

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Subject Headings

  • Ethnic conflict -- Former Soviet republics -- Case studies.
  • Post-communism -- Former Soviet republics.
  • Democratization -- Former Soviet republics.
  • Former Soviet republics -- Economic conditions.
  • Former Yugoslav republics -- Economic conditions.
  • Ethnic conflict -- Former Yugoslav republics.
  • Post-communism -- Former Yugoslav republics.
  • Former Soviet republics -- Politics and government.
  • Democratization -- Former Yugoslav republics.
  • Yugoslav War, 1991-1995.
  • Former Yugoslav republics -- Politics and government.
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