Uncertainty in Post-Reformation Catholicism: A History of Probabilism by Stefania Tutino (review)

Probabilism refers to a position in Catholic moral theology that emerged, flourished, and generated enormous controversy during the Early Modern Period. Theologians espousing this position agreed that, under certain conditions, a probable opinion represented sufficient grounds for moral action, even if the opposing position was more probable, i.e., supported by superior arguments or authorities. Beyond this general conclusion, however, probabilists debated virtually every element of their approach, from the conditions of probabilism's applicability to its basic justification. Thus, probabilism quickly became not only a technique for resolving cases of conscience but also a subject of inquiry in its own right.

The last thirty years have seen a renewal of scholarly interest in probabilism, but researchers have lacked a historical overview of the topic. Stefania Tutino has provided an essential resource for those interested in the history of Catholic moral theology and philosophy. Her discussions of the secondary literature will be particularly helpful to English speakers without facility in French or Italian, since much of the recent scholarship has appeared in those languages. Many of Uncertainty in Post-Reformation Catholicism's chapters offer illustrative examples of probabilist thinkers at work, demonstrating the range of both the approach's adherents and the problems to which it was applied.

As its author explains, Uncertainty in Post-Reformation Catholicism (hereafter UPRC) is not a comprehensive examination of its topic. Tutino focuses upon the probabilism's initial phases, from its inception in the late sixteenth century until the Vatican condemnations of 1679, rather than upon its later reconfiguration by Alphonsus de Liguori. Although UPRC discusses probabilism's significance for other parts of the Catholic world, it gives considerable emphasis to events in Rome, from the theoretical expositions of probability by Jesuit professors in the Roman College, to the "Roman reaction" to controversies regarding probabilist texts and authors. Finally, while acknowledging that one could approach probabilism from a variety of vantage points, Tutino is most concerned with its epistemological functions, as a method for responding to the uncertainties generated by a rapidly changing world.

UPRC's greatest contribution to the study of probabilism is its exposition and analysis of unpublished library and archival resources. First, the volume reshapes our appreciation of probabilism by discussing unpublished works by both famous and largely obscure theologians (e.g., Juan de Lugo and Alberto de Albertis). Second, UPRC addresses a number of private reports from officials charged with evaluating probabilist texts for the Holy Office or the Society of Jesus. Such documents help to explain the perplexing shift in probabilism's ecclesiastical fortunes in the mid-seventeenth century. For the study of probabilists under attack, especially Juan Caramuel and Antonino Diana, UPRC provides essential background. Tutino reveals church authorities' dilemma in addressing an ethical method that had become too epistemologically entrenched to condemn, and yet too threatening to leave to the vicissitudes of theological debate.

UPRC also demonstrates how complicated the history of probabilism became, precisely because it was a theological method rather than a freestanding ethical theory. As it confronted the evolving knowledge of its age, probabilism itself evolved in reaction to existing standards of pastoral care, canonical regulations, and the legacies of patristic and medieval ethical thought. Thus, the probability of an opinion was not a probabilist theologian's only consideration in reaching practical conclusions. UPRC's enlightening chapter on fetal baptism illustrates the interplay of these various influences, especially given the concern to protect consciences from excessive burdens that probabilism inherited from pastoral practice. In effect, the traditions and circumstances that gave rise to probabilism complicated its practical application.

Like any good overview, UPRC reveals the lacunae in our current scholarship on probabilism. With a few exceptions, we have better scholarly resources on Jesuit probabilists than on non-Jesuit probabilists, for example. While the rivalry between France and the Hapsburg Empire clearly had significant implications for the history of probabilism, it would be interesting to explore...