Russia's Strategic Partnerships with China and South Korea: The Impact of THAAD

Executive summary

This article analyzes the effects of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system on Russia's strategic partnerships with China and South Korea.

Main argument

Russia opposes THAAD's placement in South Korea and has begun to cooperate with China on missile defense. But despite this cooperation, THAAD's effects on Russia's relations with South Korea have been limited compared with China's. Whereas Beijing retaliated economically, Moscow remains keen to develop closer trade ties with Seoul. The pursuit of strategic partnerships with China and South Korea has encouraged Moscow to maintain balanced relations with both countries even while facing a mutually contentious issue.

Policy implications

• • Because the Sino-Russian relationship is a strategic partnership as opposed to a full-fledged alliance, Moscow is able to cooperate with Beijing on issues of mutual interest without being in complete lockstep.

• • South Korea's policies toward Russia, more so than Japan's policies, have diverged from those of the United States in crucial respects. As a result, Russia tends to view its relationship with Japan through the lens of the U.S.-Japan alliance, whereas it has a more independent relationship with South Korea.

• • Given that South Korea is a particularly important player in Russia's bid to develop its Far Eastern region, Moscow is unlikely to allow THAAD to derail its growing economic relationship with Seoul.

Escalating tensions between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the United States prompted Washington and Seoul in 2013 to discuss deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system in the Republic of Korea (ROK). In spring 2017, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that THAAD was fully operational in the ROK. The decision to deploy THAAD there met with opposition from Russia, with Moscow expressing skepticism regarding the effects that the system could have on Northeast Asia's regional security environment. In September 2016, Mikhail Ulyanov, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control, lamented that THAAD's deployment in South Korea would simply provoke the DPRK to take further measures against the United States.¹ Russia's deputy defense minister Alexander Fomin has stated that, short of an outbreak of armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula, THAAD could ignite or perpetuate a regional arms race.² Not only have senior Russian officials expressed fears of the potential negative consequences for regional security, they have also decried the potential impact that THAAD could have on arms control agreements between Russia and the United States. Russian lawmaker Viktor Ozerov, then chairman of the Security and Defense Committee of the Federation Council (the upper house of the Russian parliament), has asserted that THAAD's deployment could serve as an impetus for Russia's withdrawal from the 2011 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START).³

The People's Republic of China (PRC), an increasingly salient partner of Russia, has echoed Russian apprehensions about THAAD's deployment. In particular, Chinese and Russian officials have repeatedly condemned the impact that THAAD will have on regional stability, as well as the potential of its radar capabilities to challenge Chinese and Russian missile systems. This specifically includes the ability to peer into the air, land, and sea beyond the Korean Peninsula and detect activities such as missile tests as well as distinguish between real nuclear warheads and decoys.⁴ The PRC and Russia vowed to implement a coordinated response to THAAD's installation in relative proximity to their borders. This professed intention to cooperate on security comes at a time when they have already grown closer on a broad range of issues. As part of this cooperative relationship, Russia's policy positions on Korean security have largely coincided with China's—namely on the absolute need to avoid military conflict to resolve the North Korean security crisis. Their agreement on policies regarding Korean security has concurrently placed Moscow and Beijing in disagreement with Washington.

At the same time, Russia...