Introduction

As the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) escalated its nuclear and missile testing in 2016 and 2017, the UN Security Council responded by passing an increasingly restrictive series of sanctions. In all, the sanctions include bans on the export of military equipment, transport vehicles, industrial machinery, dual-use goods, and luxury goods to North Korea, along with prohibitions on coal, metal, mineral, and textile exports from the DPRK and reductions and caps on oil and petroleum shipments. UN sanctions now target approximately 90% of North Korea's publicly reported exports. In addition, the sanctions freeze assets, ban some travel, mandate the expulsion of North Korean workers abroad, and prohibit transactions and joint ventures between North Korea and other nations. The United States has additionally re-designated the DPRK as a state sponsor of terrorism and imposed its own sanctions on financial institutions, companies, and shipping vessels that facilitate trade with the country. Japan, South Korea, and the European Union also put in place additional sanctions in 2016 and 2017.

There are some indications that the latest rounds of sanctions have been squeezing Pyongyang. Following the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, Kim Jong-un made unprecedented diplomatic overtures to South Korea, China, and the United States and separately met with the leaders of all three countries in the spring of 2018. A new round of negotiations between the United States and North Korea has begun, as well as renewed discussions on the future of the Korean Peninsula between the United States and South Korea, China, and Japan.

Other signs, however, suggest that sanctions may not be responsible for North Korea's change of course toward diplomacy. In 2016 the country's economy reportedly grew at its fastest rate in nearly two decades, and long-term isolation has made North Korean citizens self-reliant and experienced at coping with economic hardship. Both weak enforcement and sanctions-busting have lessened the economic blow intended to compel the DPRK to change its behavior. The regime can, in some cases, also pass the brunt of the hardship on to ordinary citizens, while Kim and other elites remain comfortable at the top. North Korea is well-known for its cat-and-mouse diplomacy; Pyongyang's sudden swing toward negotiations could just be the latest tactic to achieve short-term economic relief while continuing to advance its WMD and missile programs.

While the outcome of negotiations is still uncertain, UN and other sanctions are expected to largely remain in place for at least the near term. This Asia Policy roundtable presents a range of different perspectives on both the impact that sanctions are having on North Korea and whether they will be successful in convincing the Kim regime to commit to the path of denuclearization.

The first essay by Rüdiger Frank provides a negative assessment of the effectiveness of sanctions by examining their impact on North Korea's political economy. After looking at economic growth, trade, and other indicators, he concludes that sanctions did not prevent North Korea from going nuclear and are unlikely to change the country's behavior. What they may do, in his view, is add fuel to the hotspot that is the Korean Peninsula in a great-power conflict between the United States and China.

By contrast, Sung-Yoon Lee argues that sanctions have not been strong enough and that the recent return to diplomacy, which South Korea has embraced, puts them at risk of being weakened or bypassed entirely. He contends that sanctions against North Korea only truly became meaningful in 2016 and have not been in effect long enough to apply the necessary pressure on the Kim regime. South Korea, in his assessment, has too often been eager to relax pressure on the North in what inevitably proves to be the false hope of cooperation and reconciliation with its peninsular neighbor.

The essay by Catherine Jones focuses on the role of a key player in the drama—China, North Korea's neighbor and most important trade partner. After discussing how sanctions are designed to signal disapproval of inappropriate behavior, constrain access to resources, or stigmatize behavior and...