Introduction

The Sino-Russian relationship has progressed considerably since Mikhail Gorbachev called for creating “an atmosphere of good-neighborliness” with China in 1986.¹ The delivery of ten Russian Su-35 fighter jets to China in late December 2017 is a testament to this, especially considering that 30 years ago nearly two million troops were amassed along their shared border.² Since the demise of the Soviet Union, the two countries have gradually improved relations, developing their defense relationship in the 1990s, jointly declaring the establishment of a partnership of strategic coordination in 1996, and resolving the border issue in 2008. Yet the pivotal moment occurred in 2014 with the onset of the Ukraine crisis and Western sanctions that pushed Russia toward strategic dependence on China, eliminating any flexibility it previously had. The momentum in the relationship has only continued since then. Although there are clear checks on the depth of the partnership, discussed in the essays in this roundtable, the common interests behind this intensification of cooperation seem to be increasing.

There is considerable agreement among experts about the trajectory of positive Sino-Russian relations, as well as the causes of closer cooperation between the two countries across numerous energy, economic, political, and security issues. There is less agreement, however, about the implications that heightened cooperation might have for the global system and regional relations. This roundtable offers a spectrum of perspectives in response to these questions, including from the key states involved (China, Russia, and the United States), as well as on what closer Sino-Russian cooperation means for neighboring countries in Central and Northeast Asia.

In the first essay, Angela Stent looks at U.S. policy objectives toward Russia on the issues of Syria, North Korea, counterterrorism, cyberthreats, and sanctions and examines the degree to which the trajectory of Sino-Russian relations might affect these objectives. She stresses that across these issues there are no significant points of contention that the United States might exploit to drive China and Russia apart. The two countries’ suspicion of the United States and mutual desire to forge a new international order drive the partnership. Closer cooperation will likely hinder the realization of U.S. policy objectives, and the United States must be careful to avoid policies that further bind the two countries together.

Providing a historical context for the relationship, Yu Bin assesses the trajectory of Sino-Russian relations over the past three hundred years. He observes that the two countries have moved from a relationship characterized by volatility to a more pragmatic and institutionalized coexistence. Touching on the Chinese perspective, Yu characterizes the strategic partnership as a dynamic and flexible one that moves beyond the conventional concept of zero-sum geopolitics. For Yu, the direction of the two countries’ relations with the West will be a critical determinant as to whether the partnership moves toward a true alliance.

Alexander Lukin provides a Russian perspective on the relationship, arguing that the Sino-Russian rapprochement is the result of the countries’ shared geopolitical views. China and Russia desire both to counter the West’s dominant influence in the global system and to encourage the development of a multipolar world. Western policies intent on preserving a preeminent position have only served to accelerate the deepening of Sino-Russian cooperation, though the formation of an alliance is unlikely. Any attempt to drive a wedge between them to counter China’s rising influence would fail because of their mutual interests. Lukin asserts that the United States must forfeit its hegemony and join Russia and China to find new principles that suit a multipolar world order.

Turning to Central Asia, Tomohiko Uyama compares Russia’s and China’s activities and influence in the region, noting that each country’s individual engagement is much more significant than their bilateral cooperation. Russia exerts unrivaled influence in the political and security realms, and a de facto division of labor is forming, with China taking an increasingly prominent role in economic engagement. The United States’ engagement with Central Asia has been mostly unsuccessful, in part because of its emphasis on Afghanistan. This contrasts with Japan’s greater success in engaging the broader region...