State Fiscal Effort and Juvenile Incarceration Rates: Are We Misdirecting our Investment in Human Capital?

The relationship between lack of a high school diploma and juvenile incarceration is well known. This study investigated whether an increase in state fiscal effort for education is associated with decreased juvenile incarceration rates. Each state’s and the District of Columbia’s educational fiscal effort and its relation with state juvenile incarceration rates over a 25-year time period was examined at 5, 10, 15, and 20-year lag intervals to account for effect delays. A statistically significant inverse association between state educational fiscal effort and state juvenile incarceration rates across the United States was found using a GEE with raw data at a 5-year time lag. Statistically significant associations were found using Pearson’s Product Moment analysis in 10 states as well. On average across the U.S., a 1% increase in fiscal effort is estimated to provide a potential average yearly savings of $4,953,967.25 per state.