Timor-Leste in 2016: Redefining Democracy

In the lead-up to presidential and parliamentary elections in 2017, Timor-Leste in 2016 occupied a seriously ambivalent political space. The ambivalence arose from what appears to be the aspiration for national unity and the actuality of what appears to be the end of opposition politics in Timor-Leste, and therefore a possible diminution of democratic representation. The creation of a Government of National Unity (GNU) in February 2015 set up what Arend Lijphart has termed a "consociational democracy" in Timor-Leste, an arrangement where the opposition, in effect, surrenders that role and possibly the opportunity to replace the government at the next national elections in return for a share in government. It is an arrangement between previously rival leaders and their parties, where national elites agree to share power.¹ This is a type of "controlled democracy" intended to replace political conflict with political cooperation. What it actually may entail is a loss of accountability and transparency and a consequent tendency towards political collusion, or worse.

The Redefinition of East Timorese Democracy

To understand the operation of national politics in Timor-Leste in 2016 it is necessary to consider again the major changes to the political system that occurred in 2015. These have been reviewed by Maj Nygaard-Christensen in Southeast Asian Affairs 2016,² but they will be further discussed here in order to explain the transition that the country is undergoing between the formation of the GNU in February 2015 and the expected presidential and parliamentary elections in 2017.

In its second year of operation, the Sixth Constitutional Government continued to redefine democracy in Timor-Leste. This redefinition began on 6 February 2015 when Xanana Gusmão resigned as Prime Minister. He appointed as his successor Dr Rui Maria de Araújo, who on 16 February was sworn in to lead a Government of National Unity. Araújo is a senior member of FRETILIN, the party that formed the government upon independence but lost power in the 2007 election to the CNRT. The CNRT was created in that year by then President Gusmão as his vehicle to win the Prime Ministership and replace the FRETILIN government with his own.³ In February 2015 he also brought two senior members of FRETILIN into the Council of Ministers: Estanislao da Silva, a former FRETILIN interim prime minister (2007), was appointed Minister of State, Coordinator of Economic Affairs, and the Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries; Hernâni Coelho, a former ambassador to Australia in the previous FRETILIN government, was appointed to the key position of Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation.⁴ FRETILIN's Aleixo Maria da Silva was also made one of the two Ministers of State and Coordinating Minister of the Economy.

The formation of the Sixth Constitutional Government of Timor-Leste in 2015 was the final step in Xanana Gusmão's plan, in what he sees as his role as the "Father of National Unity", to establish a system of national reconciliation that in effect turns Timor-Leste for the time being into almost a non-competitive democracy. Whether this becomes a permanent situation and survives the 2017 elections is to be seen.

Xanana Gusmão's Pivotal Role in the Transition

As Maj Nygaard-Christensen noted in the review of Timor-Leste in 2015, Timorese politics is rarely predictable.⁵ What has made East Timorese politics particularly unpredictable since 2007 is Gusmão himself. He has personally dominated the national political scene. A common observation is that "Timorese politics remain far more personality driven than ideologically driven".⁶ Parties tend to revolve around their leader. This is very much the case with Gusmão. He, and not his party or his Council of Ministers, ran his governments between 2007 and 2015 as the charismatic leader. It is his ambitious strategic development plan that has created massive infrastructure projects in the south and in the enclave of Oecussi. He still exercises considerable personal influence over national affairs as the Senior Mentor in the cabinet and as Minister of Planning and Strategic Investment, a position that provides him with continued access to the...