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  • A Russian Perspective on the Relevance and Challenges of the ADMM-Plus
  • Victor Sumsky (bio)

The main strength of the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) is basically the same as that of other ASEAN-centered multilateral dialogue platforms: inclusiveness. In other words, the forum is characterized by a principled openness to countries big and small that belong to the East Asian region geographically, historically, economically, and politically. Each state pursues its own external interests but at the same time accepts ASEAN’s coordinating role in promoting mutual cooperation for the sake of greater stability and security at national, regional, and global levels.

The first section of this essay examines the strengths of the ADMM-Plus relative to other ASEAN-centered forums. The essay then discusses Russia’s participation in the ADMM-Plus, as well as in other regional groupings, and considers the potential pitfalls that could limit the effectiveness of this dialogue platform.

The Strengths of the ADMM-Plus

As the youngest member in the “family” of ASEAN-centered institutions, the ADMM-Plus still does not suffer from some of the weaknesses developed by the older and respected “relatives,” the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS). At the risk of sounding too critical, I would dare say that for quite a while the ARF has been a hostage of its own official agenda, which obliges it to proceed in a disciplined way from confidence-building measures to preventive diplomacy and then to conflict resolution—as if conflicts and their resolution can patiently wait until the two previous stages are properly completed. As far as the EAS is concerned, it is tempting to ask whether any of its ten meetings—which, after all, have brought together a whole number of powerful regional and global leaders—has produced memorable results (not to mention “historic decisions”). What we habitually remember about these summits are clashes between certain states, in particular over the [End Page 114] territorial disputes in the South China Sea ever since it was decided in 2010 that the EAS would discuss regional security matters.

True, during its last meeting in 2015 the ADMM-Plus also failed to work out a common approach to the situation in the South China Sea. But even so, its agenda and activities do not leave one with an impression of irrelevance. On the contrary, the overall feeling is that this forum is pragmatically and pointedly dealing with real issues such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, military medicine, maritime security, counterterrorism, peacekeeping, and humanitarian de-mining actions. While cooperation in some of these priority areas (in the form of field training, meetings, workshops, and exercises) may be developed easier than in others, on the whole this set of objectives reflects some of the serious changes that started to unfold in the world precisely around 2010—the same year that saw the launching of the ADMM-Plus. Specifically, I am talking about the fact that the global transition from unipolarity to multipolarity, which has been evolving since the late 20th and early 21st centuries, has recently acquired a more dramatic, destabilizing, and conflict-generating character. The polarizing effect of this character shift is already felt in East Asia. If this process continues and deepens, then the loss of economic dynamism in this exceptionally dynamic region may just be a matter of time.

For Russia—just like for many other, if not all, regional actors—this would be a highly unwanted turn of events. Russia’s own modernization plans envisage progressively greater trade and investment cooperation with East Asia’s economic “miracles.” Stronger interactions and links in the military-political field are viewed in this context as having the potential to arrest the further growth of strategic uncertainty, if not fully then at least partially. This is one probable explanation for why, from the Russian perspective, the value of the ADMM-Plus as a strategic dialogue platform may be relatively high.

Russia’s Involvement in the ADMM-Plus and Other International Forums

In the last few years, Russia’s own status as a global military power has been largely restored. The country has resurged as one of the major players in...

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