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  • Thailand in 2015The Waiting Game
  • Serhat Ünaldi (bio)

In Thailand, 2015 was a tough year for the impatient. Politics and economic development came to a near standstill in the expectation of the imminent death of King Bhumibol. Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-o-cha and his men want to be in charge when the life of the world’s richest and longest-reigning monarch comes to an end. But the King kept breathing on the sixteenth floor of Siriraj Hospital on the banks of the ever-winding Chao Phraya River, while unaccountable elites positioned themselves for the post-Bhumibol era.1 The generals continued to play the waiting game and held the country hostage. A process to write a new constitution, the twentieth since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932, was exposed as a sham when an admittedly flawed draft was rejected, only to set in motion another cycle of consultations, writing and, presumably, rejection to keep the junta in power indefinitely.

Meanwhile, the features of the next reign began to take shape. As Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn reached for the crown, some of his former confidants dropped like flies, allegedly aided by Thailand’s generals. If the purge and death of would-be allies is anything to go by, the rule of Rama X2 will be marked by insecurity and instability. King Bhumibol had allowed people to use his royal charisma to legitimize their own agendas as long as these did not threaten the monarchy’s interests and exalted position. While Thais were “working towards the monarchy”3 in that way, the stability of the crown seemed fairly secure. The recent alleged murders of individuals who attached themselves to the Crown Prince, such as Major General Phisitsak Seniwong Na Ayutthaya, the Prince’s main bodyguard, however, intensified fears that anyone who got close to Vajiralongkorn would get burned like Icarus, who sought proximity to the sun, only to fall to his [End Page 317] death. Hence, the generals might find it difficult to keep a lid on the country’s boiling pot.

But even without a vengeful royal hothead, the country’s simmering tensions brought about by grave structural changes in the social makeup of Thailand over the past decades are bound to transform the country sooner or later. The suppression of democracy that continued in 2015 with the arrests of academics, students, journalists and critics of the junta and the monarchy has to be seen in this light. More important than any talk of an intra-elite struggle is that the current power holders are bent on preventing the inevitable, that is, the emergence of a political system that gives expression to the demands and aspirations of the majority of the Thai people rather than those of a select few.

The dire state of the Thai economy was one reminder of how urgently a stable political system is needed to be able to integrate more people into the market, promote domestic consumption, build an educational system that nurtures critical thinking and creativity, and foster accountability to reduce corruption and misguided investments. Internationally, Prayuth Chan-o-cha, head of the junta, continued to present his iron fist as a tool, necessary for introducing vital reforms that would help Thailand move ahead, a point he made for example in his first speech before the United Nations General Assembly.4 By pandering to Chinese interests and shrugging off criticism from U.S. and EU officials, the generals tried but ultimately failed to dissociate Thailand’s domestic politics from international affairs and demands. The world’s two biggest challenges in 2015 — global waves of refugees and radical Islamism — made themselves felt in Thailand. Muslim minorities fleeing from neighbouring Myanmar and a lethal bomb attack on a popular shrine in downtown Bangkok, presumably connected to the controversial deportation of Muslim Uighurs to China, reminded Thais of their global interconnectedness. The junta’s attempt to introduce a single internet gateway to exert greater control over the online activities of Thailand’s citizens was countered by a global network of “hacktivists”. Their successful attacks on government websites exposed again just how much Thailand’s grey-headed men in green are out of...

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