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  • Southeast Asia’s Regional Autonomy Under Stress
  • Carlyle A. Thayer (bio)

Political and security developments during 2015 posed major challenges to the Association of South East Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) promotion of regional autonomy and community building. The vexed issue of maritime disputes in the South China Sea took a new turn with China’s accelerated construction of artificial islands, Japan’s stepped-up support for claimant states, and the initiation of freedom of navigation operational patrols (FONOP) by a U.S. warship and aircraft. These three developments illustrated once again the difficulties confronting ASEAN in maintaining Southeast Asia’s autonomy in the face of intensified major power rivalry. During the year ASEAN continued to press China for an expeditious conclusion of a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea.

During 2015 ASEAN encountered five significant challenges to its efforts at community building: the Rohingya refugee crisis; the flare-up of border tensions between Cambodia and Vietnam; competing organizational forms of regional economic integration; domestic political transitions in Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar; and the resurgence of international terrorism.

South China Sea Dispute

China’s Artificial Islands

In 2015 China accelerated construction of infrastructure on seven artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago — Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef, Mischief Reef, South Johnston Reef, Gaven Reef, Hughes Reef and Cuarteron Reef. Between February and September China completed construction of a three-kilometre-long runway on Fiery Cross. This became operational in January 2016 when China conducted [End Page 3] three test flights by civilian passenger aircraft. In mid-year China began building a second airstrip on Subi, while in September China commenced preparatory work for a third runway on Mischief Reef.1 When completed, the total length of China’s airfields (9,000 metres) will be more than twice as long as the four airstrips maintained by Malaysia (1,368 m), Taiwan (1,195 m), the Philippines (1,000 m) and Vietnam (500 m). With the exception of Vietnam, all the runways in the South China Sea will be able to accommodate jet fighters; but only China will be able to operate bombers.2

During 2015, U.S. spokespersons repeatedly called on all claimants to halt land reclamation and new construction and refrain from militarizing the features that they occupied. For example, on 18 November President Barack Obama told a press conference in Manila, after meeting his Philippine counterpart Benigno Aquino, “We agreed on the need for bold steps to lower tensions including pledging to halt further reclamation, new construction and militarization of disputed areas in the South China Sea.”3

China rejected these calls by arguing that it was only catching up and doing what other claimant states had already done. China also sent out mixed signals. On 5 August, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that land reclamation had “already stopped”.4 In September, Xi Jinping stated, while on a state visit to the United States, that “China does not intend to pursue militarization” in the disputed Spratly Islands.5 Yet, on 24 November, Hong Li, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson, stated that China had completed land reclamation in June but that “some civilian facilities” were being built, including two lighthouses. He then observed, “We will also build necessary defence facilities on some islands and reefs. The relevant construction will be moderate, which has nothing to do with militarization, targets no countries, and [does] not obstruct various countries’ enjoyment of freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea in accordance with international law.”6

Japan Supports Claimant States

On 4 June, Japan and the Philippines agreed to enhance their strategic partnership during the course of an official visit to Tokyo by President Aquino. Aquino’s host, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, pledged to increase development assistance to the Philippines, including the provision of ten patrol boats for the Philippine Coast Guard. Abe also indicated that Japan would consider providing the Philippines with three Beechcraft TC-90 King Air maritime surveillance aircraft, radar technology and possibly a used Lockheed Martin P3-C anti-submarine patrol plane.7 [End Page 4]

On 15 September, Nguyen Phu Trong, Secretary General of the Vietnam Communist Party, visited Japan at the invitation of Prime...

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