History as Applied Science: A Philosophical Study by William Todd (review)

ß Rewews GENERAL Historyas AppliedScience: A Philosophical Study.WILLIAM TODD. Detroit; WayneStateUniversityPress, •972. PP. 25o. $• •.95. This is a goodbook: sharplyfocused, tightly-written, and well produced. It exaggerates a little in claimingto be 'the firstbookto applya philosophy of historyto actualcases'; but its analyticalsurvey of twelvesamples of historical inquiryin the first two-thirdsof its lengthcertainlyrepresents an approach which other philosophers theorizingabouthistorywould do well to emulate. The samples have beenselected soas to take accountof the greatvarietyof typesof historical writing.They rangefrom purelychronological problems in earlyChinese historyto issues of near-contemporary politicalhistory, fromstatisticalquestions to questions of ideology, frominquiryat themostgenerallevel to 'piecemeal' monographic history;and thereis evena section drawn from CraneBrinton'scomparative anatomyof revolutions. With greatskill,Professor Todd allowsa numberof interlocking themes to ariseout of hisexamination of cases. Amongtheseare the extentto whichdifferences in historical writingare traceableto differences in questions askedand sources usedrather than mere idiosyncrasies of historians; the unavoidability of conventional inductiveand deductive modes of reasoning in historical arguments; andvarious ways in which humanisticand scientificviewsof historicalunderstanding can be reconciled and evensynthesized. The main themeo.fthe book,however, is the essential part playedin all kindsof historical inquiryby evaluative judgments on the part of the historian,and by judgments aboutwhat wouldhavehappened had certainpastevents or conditions beenotherthantheyactuallywere.Theselatter , so-called'counterfactual conditional' ,assertions, althoughoften repudiated in principleby historians asuseless speculations, are shownto be inherentnot onlyin all causalexplanations, but alsoin all evaluations. REVIEWS 177 In the final third of the book,besides pressing further the implications of their commitment to counterfactuals and evaluations, Professor Todd sketches a casefor greateruseby historians of the techniques of operations research, whichhe considers to be evenmoreobviously applicable to the studyof past eventsthan to the predictionof futureones.Given the limited spacehe allows himselffor sucha formidabletask,he is remarkablypersuasive; and eventhose who remainunpersuaded should findilluminatingmuchof whathe hasto say about games,simulations, and the useof modelsin mathematicsand the social sciences. Notable throughoutis his acceptance of what he takesto be.the goals of 'traditional'historiography (hencethe seriousness of hisinitial survey).What he claimsto offer arebetterwaysof accomplishing what historians are already trying to accomplish, not waysof doingother, allegedlymore usefulor more scientificthings- still lesswhat just happensto be convenientfor computerassisted research. Thus, whenhe declares that historycan be both an applied science and, at the sametime, a 're-enactment of pastexperience,' he doesn't simplymean,ashavemanyrecentcriticsof historyin the nameof science, that 're-enactment' canbeheuristically helpfulin suggesting explanatory hypotheses. Like the Collingwoodian he claimsto be, he regards it alsoasa peculiarlyhistorical criterionof intelligibility-as part of what it meansto understandthe past historically.This giveshis claim to have formulateda more scientific methodology unusualinterest,and makesit the more regrettablethat, at present , he offersno more than a sketch,appendedto a survey.It is to be hoped that in subsecluent worksProfessor Todd will providea moredetailedaccount of thismethodology. WILLIAM DRAY Trent University Biology, History,andNaturalPhilosophy. EditedbyALL•ZN D.RRECI• andWOLFOANO YOVRORAV. Basedon the SecondInternationalColloquiumheld at the Universityof Denver.New York and London,PlenumPress,•97e. PP. xiv, 355. See.5 ø. This volumecomprises twenty-twopaperspresented at a conference of biologists , historians, andphilosophers, concentrating onbiology whilemaking'some excursions intohistoryandan occasional journeyintonaturalphilosophy.' The contributions covera rangethat has no overallcohesion, it beinghard, for example,to connectRonaldCowden's discussion of the evolutionary modulation of ribosomal RNAsynthesis in oogenesis and earlyembryonic development with Harry Woolf'sstudyof theories of the universe in the lateeighteenth century ,andtheeditors appearto haveproceeded on theassumption that themere co-presence of well-intentioned individuals may generatea morecomprehensive understanding of nature.The betteressays herecertainlydeserve publication, but editorialcontrolof standards and scopehasbeenlax, and the volumeis accordingly of limitedvalueto the historian. Severalcontributions are, however, moreimpressive than the overallselec- ...