Canada’s Role in the Asia-Pacific Rebalance: Prospects for Cooperation

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This article explores Canada’s role in the Obama administration’s rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region.

Main argument

As the Obama administration’s rebalance enters its fourth year, Washington’s search for like-minded partners in the Asia-Pacific region continues. This article assesses Canada’s potential role in this economic, diplomatic, and military effort to link U.S. prosperity with that of the Asia-Pacific and outlines the scope of potential cooperation between the two countries. Canada is the U.S.’s longest-standing and closest ally and trading partner. Furthermore, the U.S. rebalance comes at a time when the government of Stephen Harper is preparing to re-engage the Asia-Pacific region. Nonetheless, U.S. policymakers should be circumspect in their expectations for Canadian contributions to regional security, despite the commonality of regional interests. Specifically, U.S. policymakers should be aware that Canada’s re-engagement with the Asia-Pacific is driven by a desire to reduce its trade reliance on the U.S.

Policy implications

• • If willing, Canada can support U.S. objectives in the Asia-Pacific by offering good offices, building capacity, promoting the rule of law, and improving regional and local governance, which improves the overall business climate.

• • U.S. policymakers should support Canadian overtures to regional institutions such as the East Asia Summit in a diplomatic style that is sensitive to regional trepidation.

• • U.S. policymakers should not expect overt Canadian support for any policy that will appear untoward in Beijing. Canada is unlikely to involve itself directly in the South China Sea dispute and will likely target its efforts to build its regional brand in less controversial issue areas.

• • Any Canadian capacity to contribute meaningfully to traditional security issues, like the South China Sea dispute, hinges on the perception that Canada is independent from the United States in the Asia-Pacific. The two countries should keep joint public statements on Asia-Pacific security to a minimum.

The United States and Canada have simultaneously reinvigorated their diplomatic and military postures toward the Asia-Pacific. As two of the world’s closest allies, it is worth exploring the possible synergies and tensions between these efforts in order to identify areas of possible policy coordination. Canada has considerable assets that could support U.S. diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific, including the legacy of its good offices in the region and its close ties with the U.S. military. On the surface, Canada seems a welcome partner for the United States as the Obama administration rebalances toward Asia. It is thus unsurprising that the two have recently established a senior officials dialogue on Asian security issues between the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development and the U.S. Department of State. However, there are multiple points of tension between the drivers of Canada’s re-engagement and U.S. foreign policy priorities in the region that may prevent a perfect North American marriage in the Pacific.

First, Canada’s diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific is driven by its desire to diversify away from the U.S. market. Although relatively innocuous in isolation, the politics of this shift, driven by growing concern in Canada about whether the United States remains a reliable market for energy exports, adds a layer of complexity. Second, Canada’s pursuit of closer economic ties with China could undermine its willingness to support the United States on tough regional security issues in the Asia-Pacific. Third, and related, overt support of U.S. security prerogatives is inconsistent with Canada’s legacy in the region, which is based on the appearance of independence from the United States. Therefore, Canada may not be an ideal Pacific partner for the United States. Policymakers in Washington should be aware of these points of tension, lest they assume that Canada can be relied on simply because of its support for the U.S. liberal international order.¹

In order to assess the potential for coordinating U.S. and Canadian policies toward the Asia-Pacific...