The Art and Science of Prognostication in Early University Medicine

Prognosis occupied a more prominent place in the medieval curriculum than it does at the modern university. Scholastic discussions were rooted in the Hippocratic Aphorisms and shaped by Galen's treatises On Crisis and On Critical Days. Medical prediction, as an art dependent on personal skills such as memory and conjecture, was taught with the aid of the liberal arts of rhetoric and logic. Scientific predictability was sought in branches of mathematics, moving from periodicity and numerology to astronomy. The search for certitude contributed to the cultivation of astrology; even at its peak, however, astrological medicine did not dominate the teaching on prognostication. The ultimate concern, which awaits further discussion, was not even with forecasting as such, but with the physician and, indeed, the patient.